Matrixport: Influenced by capital structure and participation, Bitcoin is expected to turn bullish in the short term

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Matrixport’s weekly review indicates that Bitcoin quickly retraced to reach a key downside target zone, but the market remains torn between “improving macro environment” and “insufficient technical correction.” Growth indicators are rebounding, fiscal力度 is strengthening, and the US dollar is weakening, which should support risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear, sustainable reversal confirmation.

On the technical side, the critical trend levels previously used to distinguish between “short-term rebound” and “structural decline” have been broken and lost, and earlier support levels have turned into resistance above. Therefore, the recent rebound appears more like a corrective move after a decline rather than a trend or structural shift. The position structure further amplifies upward pressure: a large amount of capital entered at higher price ranges, with limited reduction during the pullback. In the absence of convincing new narratives or catalysts, this existing capital is more likely to turn into supply pressure above rather than effective support.

From a cyclical perspective, it seems to be in the later stage of the cycle near the top. Historically, similar phases, even with macro improvements, do not necessarily see an immediate stop in decline; they often experience a period of pullback or weak consolidation, with the focus shifting further downward. The reasons stem from capital structure and participation: with crowded chips and waning participation, funds entering at high levels tend to take profits and reduce risk during rebounds, making selling pressure easier to outweigh new capital inflows. Macro positive factors are also less likely to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term.