Matrixport: Bitcoin market remains in a tug-of-war between technical weakness and macroeconomic improvement

Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 6th, Matrixport released a weekly report stating, “Bitcoin quickly retraced after reaching a key downside target zone, but the market remains torn between ‘macro environment improvement’ and ‘insufficient technical correction.’ Growth indicators are rebounding, fiscal stimulus is strengthening, and the US dollar is weakening, which should support risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation.\n\nOn the technical side, the key trend lines used to distinguish between ‘short-term rebound’ and ‘structural decline’ have been broken and lost. Previous support levels have turned into resistance above. Therefore, recent rebounds are more like corrective recoveries after a decline rather than a change in trend or structure. The position structure further amplifies upward pressure: a large amount of capital is entering at higher price levels, with limited reduction during pullbacks. In the absence of convincing new narratives or catalysts, this existing capital is more likely to turn into supply pressure above rather than a reliable support source.\n\nFrom a cyclical perspective, it appears to be in the late stage of the cycle, near the top. Historically, similar phases, even with macro improvements, do not necessarily see immediate price stops; they often experience a period of decline or weak consolidation, with the center of gravity shifting further downward. The reasons stem from capital structure and participation: when chips are crowded and participation wanes, capital entering at high levels tends to take profits and reduce risk during rebounds. Selling pressure can easily outweigh new capital inflows, making it harder for macro positives to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term.”