2.6 Ethereum Market Deep Dive: Bearish Pattern Unchanged, Rebounds Are All Trap Trades

ETH's short-term oversold rebound started from a low of 1736. Today, it has reached the critical resistance zone of 1950-1960. Technical indicators show clear weakness: the 15-minute moving averages have yet to form a valid golden cross, trading volume is gradually shrinking, rebound momentum is clearly fading, and resistance levels have become a fixed obstacle.

The current market’s main resistance still comes from the ongoing liquidation pressure of positions under Yilihua. The core liquidation zone of 1780-1860, formed through Aave’s cyclical lending and leverage, has not been broken, and is trapped in a negative cycle of "decline - deposit repayment - sell-off." This rebound has coincidentally become an opportunity for accelerated deposit inflows and debt repayment. The persistent passive selling pressure will fundamentally suppress price increases, becoming the biggest obstacle to ETH’s rebound.

From a trend perspective, the overall bearish structure of ETH remains unchanged. The daily chart shows a clear downward channel with lower highs and lower lows. This recent rally is not a trend reversal but a technical correction after a sharp decline, a typical trap trade. Short-term bottom-fishing funds entering the market are unlikely to find support, and blindly chasing longs can easily lead to being trapped. Spot holders should seize the rebound window to reduce positions decisively and wait for a second dip to confirm support.

Trading suggestion: During the rebound to the 1930-1950 range, gradually establish short positions targeting 1800-1700. The medium- to long-term key target is 1600. If this level is broken effectively, the downside space will further open, with a low target of 1500. Follow the trend to avoid counter-trend risks; recognizing the rhythm is key to capturing bearish profits!