Trading volume exceeds 10 billion, but Bitcoin drops over 15%: Is the BlackRock ETF diverging from the crypto market?

The cryptocurrency market has just experienced a dramatic trading day. According to data disclosed by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the spot Bitcoin ETF under the asset management giant BlackRock—IBIT—saw trading volume surge to approximately $10 billion despite a 13% drop in price in a single day, setting a new record for daily trading volume since its listing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price experienced a sharp intraday decline of nearly 15%, falling from about $73,100 at the open to around $62,400, marking the first time in 15 months that the asset has fallen below the $70,000 level.

Market Dynamics

In traditional financial markets, high trading volume is often seen as a positive signal of active investor participation, but in the early February cryptocurrency market, the situation was quite different.

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, recorded an astonishing $10 billion in daily trading volume despite a significant 13% price drop. This figure far exceeds the previous record of about $8 billion for this product, whereas normally, the ETF’s daily trading volume is only in the tens of millions of dollars.

Data indicates that this is not merely a coincidence. Bitcoin experienced a sharp price decline that day, dropping from about $73,100 at the open to a low of around $62,400, a decline of nearly 15%. This suggests that, despite the substantial price drop, investors remained actively engaged in ETF trading, creating a unique market phenomenon.

Market Mechanisms Behind the Data

Analysis of market depth data reveals multiple dimensions behind this plunge. According to Bloomberg compiled data, during a multi-week downtrend in cryptocurrency prices, IBIT repeatedly experienced high trading volumes exceeding $5 billion. Notably, this phenomenon is not isolated. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk from over $3 trillion at the end of January to about $2.16 trillion, indicating widespread market adjustment.

Bitcoin broke through several key psychological levels during this decline, with the loss of the $70,000 mark seen as highly symbolic. Monarq Asset Management partner Shi Liang Tang pointed out that this level holds critical political and psychological significance. Market observers generally believe that breaking below $70,000 could trigger larger-scale sell-offs.

Institutional vs. Retail Battle

Amid this market turbulence, institutional investors and retail investors are showing markedly different behaviors. On-chain data indicates a large-scale “class transfer” of crypto holdings. Retail addresses holding less than 1 Bitcoin sold aggressively during the price decline, while “whale” wallets holding large amounts of Bitcoin showed active accumulation, increasing their holdings during retail panic selling.

Meanwhile, funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. continue to fluctuate, with institutional demand showing significant uncertainty. According to Bloomberg compiled data, after a net inflow of about $562 million on Monday, over $800 million flowed out of such ETFs in the following two trading days.

Short-term and Long-term Outlook for Bitcoin

According to Gate market data, as of February 6, 2026, Bitcoin’s price is $64,796.1, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.95 billion and a market cap of $1.56 trillion. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price changed by -10.67%, with a market share of 56.80%.

Based on current market data and analysis, there are several possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s future price:

Pessimistic scenario (20% probability): If U.S. inflation unexpectedly spirals out of control, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, or if the AI bubble bursts causing a global stock market crash, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 support level.

Baseline scenario (50% probability): The market will bottom out in the first quarter, with Bitcoin trading between $82,000 and $92,000, then, as global liquidity gates open, the price could surge to $150,000 by the end of the year.

Optimistic scenario: Based on Gate platform data, analysts forecast that by 2026, the average Bitcoin price could reach $78,559.7, fluctuating between $58,134.17 and $85,630.07. By 2031, Bitcoin’s price might move to $210,873.2, representing a potential return of +108.00% compared to current levels.

Liquidity Crisis and Market Segmentation

Liquidity shifts are key to understanding current market dynamics. According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin’s market depth has declined by over 30% from its peak in October last year. The last time liquidity fell to such low levels was after the FTX collapse in 2022, and the overall contraction in market liquidity may be a driving force behind this sharp price decline.

The market shows clear signs of segmentation, with large institutional products performing strongly, while the overall market faces challenges. IBIT is currently the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, with assets around $56 billion, even as the total cryptocurrency market has fallen from its peak of over $3 trillion.

Cryptocurrency in the Macro Context

Shifts in the macro environment have significantly impacted the crypto market. News that Trump nominated Kevin Woorh as the next Federal Reserve Chair triggered further Bitcoin sell-offs.

Woorh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, and his nomination could weaken investor expectations of future Fed easing. Meanwhile, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional risk assets is increasing. Bitcoin and tech stocks are showing higher correlation; when the Nasdaq declines, Bitcoin tends to fall more sharply, and when tech stocks rebound, Bitcoin also bounces back more strongly.

Bitcoin has again fallen below the psychological $70,000 level, and a complex atmosphere is spreading in the market. Just days ago, BlackRock submitted a registration for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, planning to generate returns for investors through selling call options strategies.

Now, Bitcoin has fallen to around $64,796, and a new narrative is emerging: Is the blockchain revolution’s promise of decentralized finance ultimately just a new form of centralized control? The persistent negative Coinbase premium over the past few weeks indicates ongoing selling by U.S. institutions, while global retail investors are trying to catch the “falling knife.” When the next liquidity surge arrives, will funds continue flowing into the already institutionalized Bitcoin, or will they seek emerging assets that truly embody decentralization?