The current volatility and downward trend may continue until the first half of 2026. The key to a rebound lies in improving macro liquidity and easing internal market pressures.

Key Factors for Market Continuation:
① Macro Pressure: Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential AI bubble risks may keep risk assets like Bitcoin under pressure.
② Internal Market Pressure: Ongoing selling by long-term holders and intermittent inflows of institutional funds have led to a "slow bleeding" spot selling pressure.

Potential Rebound Signals and Timing:
Most analyses suggest that the market is more likely to enter a "consolidation and bottoming" phase rather than a deep bear market. A genuine trend reversal may require waiting for the following signals:

① Macro Shift: The Federal Reserve signals clear easing policies, and global liquidity improves.
② Internal Structural Improvement: Continued net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the emergence of new demand narratives (such as large-scale institutional allocations).
③ Price Signals: Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, serving as a technical indicator that market pressure is being absorbed and confidence is being restored.

Current Market Stage Diagram, outlining key phases and features:

Phase One: Early 2026

· Main Features: Possible pullback
· Key Drivers: Macro headwinds, market de-leverage

Phase Two: Throughout 2026 (Higher Probability Path)

· Main Features: Consolidation and bottoming
· Key Drivers: Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, liquidity battles
· Institutional Perspective: Many institutions believe this is the most likely scenario, with BTC fluctuating between $70,000 and $100,000

Phase Three: H2 2026 and Beyond

· Main Features: Trend reversal and recovery
· Key Drivers: Macro policy shifts, new capital inflows
· Institutional Perspective: If conditions are favorable, the market may rebound by the end of the year

Recommendations:
In the current environment, lower short-term profit expectations and avoid high leverage. Consider adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy by buying on dips, and maintain sufficient cash reserves to cope with volatility.