2026-2-6 Convertible Bond Rebalancing: Adjusting the portfolio of convertible bonds on February 6, 2026, to optimize holdings and manage risk.

Investing is a popularity contest. Buying at the peak of popularity is the most dangerous. At that time, all favorable factors and opinions are already priced in, and no new buyers will appear.

The safest and most profitable investments are made when no one likes them. Given time, once the asset becomes popular, its price will only move in one direction: up!

Since individual convertible bond holdings are not a large proportion (less than 45% of the overall portfolio), I plan to gradually adjust the positions…

Yesterday’s overall market performance:

Previous trading day: Convertible bonds down, A-shares down, U.S. stocks down, FTSE A50 down…

The convertible bond index fell from 2090 on February 13, 2023, to 1753 on February 5, 2024. Now at 2713, with a median of 139.6, a temperature of 93.5 degrees, 279 convertible bonds above 130 yuan—8 fewer than the previous day, accounting for 74.8%; 9 below 110 yuan—1 more than the previous day, with prices at a low of 0 and a high of 6; in February, 3 green and 1 red convertible bonds.

Convertible bond trading volume was 73.7 billion, 13.6 billion less than the previous trading day, with a turnover rate of 14%, marking the first day below 700 billion. The convertible bond index dropped 22 points to 2713, with an average price of 161.9, down 1.6 from the previous day. The median premium is 33.2%, up 0.7 from the previous day.

A-shares traded 21,945 billion, 3,100 billion less than the previous day.

Yesterday opened lower and declined, slightly recovered at the close, but ultimately fell sharply. Sentiment in the convertible bond market remains high; some traders are doing T+0 trades to maintain positions.

Yesterday Titan rose 11.6%, leading gains; trading concentration in convertible bonds decreased, with the top 5 traded varieties accounting for 21.2% of total convertible bond trading volume, down from 23.3%. The highest single-trade volume was 4 billion. Most varieties saw decreased activity, with the number of varieties trading below 10 million decreasing from 2 to 3; representing 0.8% of the market, with the minimum amount dropping from 6.8 million to 4.61 million. The market is cooling down.

Today’s convertible bond and market-related information:

New Zhi Convertible Bonds: Mandatory redemption; Huicheng Convertible Bonds, Yongji Convertible Bonds, Tairui Convertible Bonds: No mandatory redemption; Juxing Convertible Bonds, Yifeng Convertible Bonds: No downward revisions…

Zhonghuan Hailu: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by no more than 3%; Jiazhe New Energy: Company plans to buy back shares worth 220 million to 440 million yuan; Yitian Intelligent: Controlling shareholder terminates agreement to transfer 5.99% of the company’s shares…

Conversion information: Shuangliang, Shouhua—convert 100 million; Beigang—convert 36 million; Huazheng—convert 53 million; Xingfa, Shentong—convert 84 million.

Today, Feng 21, Zhonghe, Huicheng, Linuo, Rong 23, Yaoji, Mengsheng, Weixin, Xinfu, Zhonghe, Daimai are expected to meet the requirements for possible early redemption within a day; among them, Rong 23 and Linuo have a higher probability of early redemption; today Jianlong is expected to meet the requirements for possible early redemption within a day, potentially triggering a downward revision.

No new bonds listed today, no new stock subscriptions, no convertible bond subscriptions today. Focus today on: whether Yongji’s multiple convertible bonds will be redeemed early, etc.

Yongji has not been redeemed early for three months—monitor; Jiemei, Taifu, and other trends are good—continue to watch; also monitor Yi Rui, Shanshi, Hengfeng, and other previously high-performing varieties…

Summary of information:
1: U.S. stocks plunged last night, and Japanese and Korean markets followed lower in early trading.
2: Expected hot topics: Power grid equipment (Jin 05, Jingda, Huachen, Jiazhe, Yubang); Space photovoltaic (Shuangliang, Fu 22, Aowei, Dier, Reco, Tian 23, Yubang, Long 22); AI applications (Xinzhi, Dingjie, Shengxun, Jizhi, Runda, Guanzhong, Yaoji, Kelun, Sit, Pulian); Brain-computer interfaces (Seli, Jiahe, Shengxun, Lepu 2, Baolai, Wind Language); Commercial aerospace (Guanglian, Zai 22, Huati, Shenyu, Mengsheng, Hangyu); AI edge devices (Fuxin, Chao Sheng, Jiahe, Chun 23); Chips (Liyang, Maolai, Luwi, Huicheng, Jingrui 2, Anji, Yanggu); Photoresists (Jingrui 2, Huate, Huamao, Qiangli); plus humanoid robots and other concepts remain under close watch…

Yesterday, convertible bonds opened lower and declined, with moderate fluctuations and decreased trading volume; today, expect a moderate decline; thematic speculation opportunities exist; overall prices and premiums of convertible bonds are high, with some traders doing T+0 trades…

Below are bond selections from last weekend: (Personal bond selection record, not investment advice) Due to high median levels, I relaxed the bond selection criteria somewhat! Overall quality has improved compared to last week, considering volatility capacity. Of course, the premise is still optimistic about the market outlook, and I plan to hold some convertible bonds, choosing relatively low prices and small caps, aiming for concept-rich, active varieties, mainly for broad allocation, not for single-position recommendations:

1: Micro-cap convertible bonds around 130 yuan (within 300 million) can be included:
Jiali, Silk Road…

2: Slightly below 150 yuan, within 200 million, limited downward volatility, capable of driving premiums, with high upper limits, minimal retracement, excluding recent potential early redemptions:
Ailu, Haibo…

3: Relatively low-priced, low-premium varieties, around 145 yuan, with premiums about 30, with remaining maturity of 0.5-5.5 years, good for swing trading:

Hongbai, Wantian, Jinpu, Qiangli, Wanshun 2, Chao Sheng, Yong 22, Xingqiu, Shuyu, Changhai, Yirui, Shanshi…

4: Relatively low-priced, aggressive teams, around 150 yuan, ensuring certain profit/loss ratio, within 500 million, with premiums about 20:

Hengfeng, Fengshan…

5: Pure offensive types, with premiums around 15, around 160 yuan, scale of 400 million, excluding those likely to be redeemed early within 2 weeks:
None…

6: Pure defensive types, with premiums not very high, around 70%, not fully relying on downward revisions, within 1 billion, yield around -2, with diverse concepts:

Zhibang, Gongtong, Kesi, Baichang, Xineng, Qiaoyin…

7: Personally focused on more active varieties, with rich concepts, not too expensive, with good elasticity, usually around 145 yuan…

Kelun, Shanshi, Lihé, Hangxin, Haibo, Jintian, Jiali, Hongwei, Lantian…

8: Bond-type varieties, suitable for those unwilling to hold cash…
Shenhao, Fuhan, Bain, Xiangjia, Kangyi, Lizzi, Yuxing, Zhejiang Construction…

Currently, the strong redemption pressure is evident, limiting the upside, so I avoid overly expensive varieties…

The overall strategy is not to research deeply, not to concentrate, to spread out, to ride the waves, to play whack-a-mole, using width instead of depth, while protecting against risks and pursuing average returns. Conditional orders and grid orders can be used to maximize volatility, not for single-position recommendations. All bond selections are personal summaries, not investment advice. Investing involves risks; enter cautiously.

Stay true to the original intention when investing in convertible bonds. Currently, convertible bonds are very good for retail investors. Convertible bond investing is a marathon; it’s essential to stick to the right path, stay away from hype. This is the truth and the cause-and-effect. All phenomena are like illusions, like a dream, like bubbles, like lightning. One should observe with equanimity, without attachment, and cultivate the right mindset. Although water droplets are tiny, they gradually fill a large vessel…