"Bro, do you still have money to buy the dip?"

I looked at the screenshot he sent, fully invested in BTC at $90,000. Now the account is green like a leek patch. Honestly, that hit me hard because I know he's not asking about me, he's asking himself.

This week, almost everyone has been asking the same question.

Gold has fallen, silver has fallen, the US stock market has fallen, and even BTC has dropped from $120,000 all the way down to $71,000.

But what really makes my scalp crawl isn't the sharp price decline, but the on-chain data I see.

This week, 12,000 BTC have flowed into exchanges. Sounds like not much? Converted into USD, that's over $1 billion in selling pressure. Even more frightening, the market cap of USDC has decreased by $8 billion in two months, and USDT has also decreased by $2 billion.

This means real money is leaving the market.

I've been trading for 7 years and have seen many so-called "technical corrections," but this time is different. In previous crashes, someone always bought the bottom because the market had cash. Now? Even global fund managers' cash holdings are at an all-time low, and institutions have no money left to push the market.

This explains why now "US stocks rise, cryptocurrencies rise less; US stocks fall, cryptocurrencies fall harder." A market with no liquidity is this brutal.

It reminds me of the 2018 bear market, when everyone was still talking about "value investing" and drawing all kinds of technical analysis lines. Looking back now, are those lines useful? The real key is how much cash you still have in your pocket.

Trump's tariffs, the US government shutdown, geopolitical conflicts in Iran, tech giants' earnings shocks... these negative factors are falling like dominoes, and the market no longer has enough bullets to resist.

Many people may not yet understand one truth: in a bull market, those who make money are never the ones going all-in, but those who save bullets during the bear market.

But now the question is, do you still have bullets?

I'm not trying to sell anxiety; I'm just telling you a harsh reality: this correction might be deeper and longer than you think. Because this time, it's not a technical issue, but a liquidity issue. Without new capital entering, even the best news is just empty talk.

What's the only cure? Lower interest rates. Only when the Federal Reserve reopens the floodgates of liquidity can this game continue.

But until then, remember: surviving is more important than anything.

Those who are still borrowing to buy the dip may soon realize what it means when "the knife is still falling." #当前行情抄底还是观望？ $BTC