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#BTC何时反弹？ On-Chain Reaffirms "Bottom Signal"? Bitcoin Profit and Loss Supply Convergence May Point to Around $60,000
February 4, according to Coindesk, a multi-cycle validated on-chain indicator has once again attracted market attention. Data shows that when the supply of Bitcoin in profit and the supply in loss show a significant convergence, it often corresponds to a market bottom in the bear phase.
According to Glassnode data, approximately 11.1 million BTC are in profit, while another 8.9 million BTC are in unrealized loss. Historically, when these two indicators approach parity, Bitcoin has repeatedly completed cyclical bottoms. Based on current cost basis calculations, further convergence of profit and loss supply may indicate that Bitcoin's spot price is approaching the $60,000 range.
This signal has appeared in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, and has closely coincided with major market lows.
Analysis points out that as prices fluctuate around the overall market cost basis, Bitcoin shifts between "profit supply" and "loss supply," reflecting overall investor pressure and sentiment clearing. If history repeats, this indicator could provide a key reference for judging whether this round of the bear market is nearing its end.