$BTC 's price has already fallen below the level it reached last April due to the trade war. Not only that, this is also during Trump's presidential campaign, when Bitcoin was considered a strategic reserve, and it became the lowest price since the U.S. designated it as the cryptocurrency capital. During the trade war, at least the reasons were somewhat clear, but this time it seems to be truly liquidity issues, causing large-scale sell-offs with even minor disturbances.

Of course, U.S. stocks are also down today, and the decline only started after the market opened. The pre-market CME U.S. stock futures were still looking good, indicating that at least Asian and European investors in the main trading hours haven't been heavily selling off. U.S. stocks initially rose when the market opened, then started to decline steadily. It’s unclear whether this is due to pessimistic expectations about the U.S. government shutdown.

Apart from that, the possible reasons I can think of include the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the U.S., but it doesn’t quite feel like that. We’ll know more tomorrow. As of now, the House is voting on the funding bill. If it passes, the shutdown will likely end. If the shutdown was the cause, we should see a rebound afterward. If not, things could get more complicated.

Looking at Bitcoin data, the actual turnover rate isn’t very high, meaning the market hasn't entered a panic phase. Most of the trading is from short-term investors, and early investors haven't shown clear signs of exiting. This suggests that the amount of chips being sold isn’t very high. The main reason for such a sharp drop is probably poor liquidity, with very little buying volume. I’ll check the data tomorrow during the day.

Right now, many are saying things look bad. Let’s slowly eliminate possible causes. I just saw that the shutdown has ended; the House voted to pass the bill, and it’s about to be signed by Trump. Let’s see if the market can stop falling. The current chip structure still looks normal, with no obvious large-scale chip movements. However, U.S. stocks are still falling; the Nasdaq has already dropped 2.5%. If it’s really just because of the shutdown, it’s straightforward.