The market is currently very weak, with ahn999 around 0.4, which is indeed an extremely extreme position, almost equivalent to the stage in June 2022 when the bottom was just being reached. At that time, BTC dropped from 27,000 to 22,000. If we strictly follow the analogy and extrapolate proportionally, it could theoretically fall another 40%, to around 47,000.

But the problem is: this cycle does not have the same "deep bear structure" as in 2022.

First, ahn999 in this bull market has never effectively and significantly broke through the dollar-cost averaging line 1, indicating that BTC has not deviated significantly from its exponential growth valuation, and overall, it is a mild, fatigue-type bull market. In this context, copying the 2022 path of "breaking below shutdown prices and extreme panic" is inherently unreasonable.

Second, ETFs are a completely different variable in this cycle.

The peak cumulative inflow was about $60 billion, with an average cost of 84,000–86,000. Even if there is a $10 billion retreat, about $50 billion remains in the market, and at the current price of 77,000–78,000, ETF investors are overall at a loss.

A core question is: can BTC operate long-term and significantly below the ETF cost basis?

Based on historical experience, unless a systemic credit event occurs, the probability is not high.

Third, the reason the 2022 bear market hit an extreme low of 15,500 was essentially due to a "credit nuclear explosion" like the FTX collapse. If this cycle were to fall to 47,000, the impact level would need to involve a problem with an exchange of at least the size of O,k,x. Currently, there are no such preconditions.

Fourth, from the altcoin side, the deep bear conditions are not met.

For example, ADA fell from 1.3 to 0.29, a decline of about 78%; DOGE from 0.5 to 0.1, about 80%. In the last bull-to-bear transition, mainstream altcoins generally retraced over 90%. This cycle is clearly not "desperate" enough.

Therefore, I am more inclined to believe:

ah999 entered the bottom-fishing zone too early, which itself indicates that the previous cycle's rhythm cannot be used to trap this cycle.

So, the bear market strategy remains very clear:

Altcoins are only suitable for high-risk speculation in bear markets; long-term holding is still not worthwhile.

BTC is the only asset suitable for "medium to large position dollar-cost averaging" in a bear market.

Once the price enters the mining shutdown price zone (60,000–65,000), it is time to start implementing dollar-cost averaging discipline.

Unless there is a major collapse event, the probability of falling below 50,000 is very low.

The last point is very important:

BTC.D trending higher in the long term may become the norm. The attention diversion to altcoins in 2017 and 2021 was essentially a "misunderstanding." In the next cycle, funds may no longer be willing to bear risks for large amounts of air.

If that’s the case, this bear market could very well be the last significant bear market.

Ammunition should be prepared for a deep bear, not spent on emotions.

BTC's long bull run is likely not far off.