This week, BTC showed a pattern of initially strengthening, then weakening, followed by an accelerated decline, experiencing a "Black Weekend" triggered by macro risks and structural leverage collapses, leading to a market-wide crash. On January 26, BTC oscillated around the 88,200 level, then briefly retested and probed the 89,000 resistance level on January 27–28; this high point coincided with the upper boundary of the previous oscillation range, reflecting a short-term bullish attempt. Starting from January 29, as macro risk appetite weakened and liquidity tightening expectations intensified, bullish momentum significantly waned, with prices falling from 89,000 to a weekend low of around 78,000. Volatility increased sharply within the day, accompanied by large-scale perpetual contract liquidations and volume surges. ETH continued to exhibit higher characteristics than BTC; after failing to break through the 3,000 mark, it proactively broke below the 2,400 support, showing increased volume decline and dense stop-loss triggers, resulting in a clear cascade of stop-losses. The macro risk aversion sentiment, negative funding rates, and a price structure dominated by bears jointly pushed both BTC and ETH into a bearish trend. Overall, this cycle represents a downward continuation from range-bound oscillation to a breakdown, with many articles during the week focusing on shorting and high-altitude short strategies. The market feel is quite good; whether in controlling the trend or short-term accumulation, the approach is solid. The large fluctuations over the weekend highlight the importance of quick adaptation in live trading. The road to profit remains long and arduous; one must proceed with flexibility and adaptation.

From a technical perspective, the short-term bullish central pivot has been broken, forming a Lower High / Lower Low structure. Weekly momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI show weakening signals, indicating a strong continuation of the bearish trend. Short-term support levels can be watched at 75,000–76,000 structural support; a break below would point to the psychological level of 70,000. ETH has also clearly lost the support zone around 2,550–2,600, with RSI entering a weak zone. A further breakdown below 2,350–2,400 will confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. In summary, both short-term and medium-term structures favor the bears. Any upward rebound, before effectively reclaiming and stabilizing above key resistance levels, can be viewed as an opportunity for shorting rather than a trend reversal signal. The recommended trading strategy is to focus on shorting at high levels. #加密市场回调 $BTC