Based on the latest market data as of February 1, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a sharp decline, with market sentiment extremely pessimistic intraday. Short-term bearish forces dominate, and it is not recommended to blindly bottom fish or go long.

Below is the long and short analysis based on the latest data:

📉 Current Market Conditions and Sentiment

· Latest Price: approximately $2,436, down 9.76%-11.70% over 24 hours, a larger decline than Bitcoin.
· Key Changes: Price has been "cut in half" since the 2025 high, falling over 50%, hitting a near two-month low.
· Market Sentiment: Extremely pessimistic. Over $2.5 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with over 90% of liquidations from long positions. The market has experienced a "volume-driven crash," with heavy selling pressure.
· Correlation with Bitcoin: Ethereum's rhythm is generally aligned with Bitcoin, but historically it tends to perform weaker than Bitcoin.

⚔️ Core Long-Short Factors Comparison

Main Bearish Factors (Bearish Forces)

1. Technical Breakdown:
· Technical indicators across the full cycle show an extremely bearish pattern, issuing strong sell signals.
· Price has broken below the long-term upward trendline since last year, confirming weakening upward momentum.
· Price is below all major moving averages, which are arranged in a bearish configuration.
2. High Leverage Chain Liquidations Risk: Below the current price level (especially around $2,300), a large number of high-leverage longs are clustered, increasing the risk of chain reactions of liquidations and accelerating the decline.
3. Macro and Capital Pressure:
· Hawkish Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions increase risk aversion.
· Continuous net outflows from crypto spot ETFs, indicating low market buying interest.
· The "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin faces challenges, with capital flowing into more clearly defined safe-haven assets.

Potential Bullish Factors (Hope for the Bulls)

1. Technical Oversold Conditions and Rebound Demand: RSI has entered the extreme oversold zone of 28-30. Additionally, due to the lack of a decent rebound midway, the market generally expects a significant technical rebound in the future.
2. Key Historical Support Zones: The $2,100-$2,200 range is widely regarded as a strong support at daily and weekly levels. If the price falls into this zone, it may attract some spot buying interest.
3. Long-term Deflationary Fundamentals Remain Unchanged: Ethereum’s deflationary mechanism (EIP-1559) and staking ecosystem have not undergone fundamental changes.

🎯 Intraday Key Price Levels and Trading References

Before formulating any trading plan, please clearly identify the following key levels:

· Resistance Levels
· First Resistance: $2,500 – a psychological barrier and a dense liquidation zone for bears. Breaking above may trigger short-term short covering rebounds.
· Strong Resistance: $2,700-$2,800 – a critical resistance zone after recent declines; any rebound before突破 is considered a technical correction.
· Support Levels
· Intraday Support: $2,300 – the lifeline for bulls. Falling below this level, with liquidation strength reaching $737 million, could easily trigger a waterfall decline.
· Strong Support: $2,100-$2,200 – a core support zone at weekly levels. The market generally considers this a key area to determine the future trend of bulls and bears.

⚠️ Overall Judgment and Strategy Recommendations

1. Overall Assessment: The bearish trend is clear. All technical and sentiment indicators point to the downside. Any current rebound without volume confirmation may just be a continuation of the decline.
2. Advice for Bulls: Exercise extreme caution and avoid blindly bottom fishing. Spot investors should focus on the performance around the strong support zone of $2,100-$2,200, observing whether signs of stabilization (such as long lower shadows, increased volume, etc.) appear before considering phased positions. Do not engage in aggressive long positions before breaking above $2,500.
3. Advice for Bears: Follow the trend but beware of technical rebounds. The trend remains downward, but the price has fallen sharply from the high. Pay attention to whether the rebound to around $2,480-$2,500 or $2,545 shows signs of exhaustion. Shorting requires strict stop-loss settings and caution against large rebounds in the strong support zone of $2,100-$2,200.
4. Key Reminders:
· Risk First: The current market is highly volatile; high leverage equals high risk.
· Watch Related Markets: Keep a close eye on whether Bitcoin can stabilize in the critical zone of $75,000-$76,000, as well as the movements of US stocks and the US dollar index.
· Wait for Clear Signals: Whether bullish or bearish, wait for clear breakout or stabilization signals at key levels before making decisions.