January 31 | ETH Price Trend Analysis

Key Points

• Current Price: $2,702 (as of January 31, 2026)
• Short-term Outlook: High probability of a rebound from oversold conditions; technical indicators show RSI entering oversold territory, MACD narrowing in negative territory, potentially rebounding above $2,900, but geopolitical developments require close monitoring
• Key Support: $2,636 (Daily Bollinger Band lower band)
• Key Resistance: $2,969–$3,048 (Daily EMA20 and SMA20 resistance zone)

Market Drivers Analysis

Between January 30 and 31, ETH price dropped from $2,819 to $2,702, a daily decline of 4.2%, mainly influenced by the following factors:

Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of US-Iran conflict led to a global risk-off sentiment, causing a sell-off in risk assets and a flight to safety in cryptocurrencies. US President Trump threatened military strikes on Iran and deployed aircraft carriers to the Middle East, triggering market panic.

Macro Policy Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts increased concerns over tightening liquidity. Despite rates remaining unchanged, hawkish policy signals dampened risk asset appetite.

Large-scale Liquidation Events: Total crypto market liquidations within 24 hours reached $1.7 billion, with ETH liquidations at $417 million, over 90% of which were long positions. This leverage squeeze caused a cascade of liquidations, accelerating the price decline.

ETF Capital Outflows: The US spot ETH ETF experienced net outflows for three consecutive months, with over $100 million in January alone, further weakening institutional investor confidence and increasing selling pressure.

Technical and Indicator Deep Dive

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: Daily RSI at 33.6, 4-hour RSI at 28.5, both in oversold territory (<30). Similar historical levels often precede technical rebounds.
• MACD: Daily MACD histogram at -40.3, 1-hour MACD shows narrowing negative momentum to 3.85, indicating short-term momentum improvement.
• Bollinger Bands: Price touched the lower band at $2,636, with widening bands indicating increased volatility, often a sign of approaching trend reversal.

Derivatives Market Signals:

• Funding Rate: Average funding rate at -0.20%, indicating bearish sentiment, but extreme negative values often signal overly pessimistic market sentiment.
• Open Interest: Total open interest at $72.1 billion, down 11% from previous levels, suggesting deleveraging and market cooling.
• Long/Short Ratio: Liquidation ratio of 4.19:1, showing significant long squeeze, with most liquidation pressure released.

On-chain Valuation: Although specific MVRV data is limited, Santiment’s previous analysis indicates ETH’s 30-day MVRV around -8%, in undervalued territory. Historically, negative MVRV zones often present medium- to long-term investment opportunities.

Short-term Price Outlook

Rebound Scenario (60% probability): If geopolitical tensions ease, technical buy signals could push ETH to test resistance zones at $2,900–$3,000. Oversold RSI, MACD bullish divergence, and normalized funding rates will support a technical rebound.

Consolidation Scenario (30% probability): Price may oscillate within $2,636–$2,850, awaiting further fundamental catalysts. ETF capital flows and global risk appetite shifts will be key influencing factors.

Downside Risk (10% probability): If the key support at $2,636 is broken, further declines to $2,450–$2,620 are possible. Caution is advised regarding worsening geopolitical situations or macroeconomic data underperforming expectations.

Trading Recommendations

Short-term Traders: Consider buying on dips around $2,636–$2,700, with stop-loss below $2,600, targeting $2,850–$2,900.

Medium- to Long-term Investors: Current valuation levels offer entry points; consider phased accumulation, focusing on geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policy signals.

Risk Warning: Stay alert to developments in US-Iran tensions, Fed policy statements, and ETF capital flows, as these factors could trigger significant market volatility.