VND appreciates, bank loan interest rates rise sharply - Opportunities and challenges for 2026

In recent weeks, the Vietnamese currency market has experienced notable developments. The State Bank of Vietnam continues to absorb liquidity through open market operations, causing the VND to strengthen significantly, while commercial banks continuously raise lending rates to respond to the situation.

Free USD exchange rate drops sharply, VND recovers strongly

In the week of 12/1 - 16/1, the foreign exchange market recorded positive movements with the free USD exchange rate dropping sharply by 510-520 VND/week. Currently, the free USD is traded at 26,250-26,300 VND/USD, down more than 1,600 VND from the peak in November 2025.

This recovery of the VND stems from the tightening liquidity policy of the State Bank. When VND supply is tightly controlled, interbank VND interest rates rise again (overnight rate up to 3.8%, 1-week rate up to 4.6%), reducing USD speculation demand and increasing foreign currency supply in the market.

Lending rates soar - Pressure on businesses and real estate

To further tighten money supply, major banks have significantly increased lending rates. Specifically:

• LPBank: Since December 2025, lending rates have been raised to 10.5% per year
• Nam A Bank: Applying a base lending rate of approximately 9.7% per year
• GPBank: Lending rates up to 12.7% per year for the first 24 months

This high lending rate creates successive impacts on economic sectors. With liquidity tightening and borrowing costs skyrocketing, real estate investment activities (buying houses, land) slow down due to decreased borrowing demand. Property and land prices may adjust downward in this context, creating opportunities to buy at more reasonable prices for those seeking.

For the business sector, import-export companies face pressure from higher USD/VND interest rates. As capital costs increase, net profits thin out, leading companies to delay new investment plans or cut labor costs.

2026: Forecast remains challenging, stability in finance is essential

In the context of a strong VND, high borrowing rates, and limited liquidity, 2026 is forecasted to be a challenging year for both investors and businesses. Those with stable cash flows or secure jobs should continue to maintain financial stability.

Instead of seeking quick wealth, the current optimal solution is to build a solid financial foundation, manage expenses wisely, and prepare for upcoming currency fluctuations. Only with this stability can investors achieve longer-term financial goals.