The Federal Reserve's January 28th (Eastern Time, corresponding to early morning on the 29th Beijing Time) FOMC meeting decision arrived as expected: the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, officially pausing the series of three 25bp rate cuts in the second half of 2025. This "hold steady" stance fully aligns with market expectations—the CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of over 97%—so the decision itself did not trigger a major market move.

Market performance on the decision day
Bitcoin's price mostly moved sideways, with no crash or sharp rally. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, and other sources, from January 28-29, BTC fluctuated mainly between 88,900 and 89,500, reaching a high of about 90,300 and falling back to around 88,900, with daily volatility under 1%, a slight overall decline of 0.2%-0.3%. Mainstream coins like Ethereum showed similar patterns, with minimal changes in total market cap, stable liquidity in Asian markets, and no signs of panic selling.
In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets performed more strongly: gold surged, breaking a new high of over 5,400/ounce (some reports even higher), and the US dollar index edged up slightly. This indicates that in a macro environment characterized by sustained high interest rates, slightly elevated inflation, and steady economic growth, investors prefer yield-bearing "hard currencies," while interest-free risk assets like BTC temporarily lose some appeal.
Significance of the two dissenting votes
Economic assessment in the statement: activity remains solidly expanding, employment growth is somewhat low but shows signs of stability, inflation remains "slightly high." Uncertainty is high, future data will be key. No clear guidance on rate cuts.
The most notable aspect is the two dissenting votes: Stephen I. Milam and Christopher J. Waller both supported an immediate 25bp rate cut. Milam is typically dovish, but Waller (a potential successor to Powell) joined in this time, indicating internal Fed disagreements over faster easing. Powell reiterated at the press conference that the "economy remains solid," policy is appropriate, but emphasized monitoring data—if the data tilt neutral/hawkish, the probability of holding steady in March rises to over 86%. If dovish signals emerge, crypto could see a mild rebound.
Long-term outlook
Short-term: neutral to slightly cool. Liquidity expectations are delayed, high opportunity costs of high rates, BTC likely to continue oscillating in the 85k-95k range. The low position of the dollar benefits the "digital gold" narrative, but gold is leading the rally, making BTC relatively less attractive.
Mid to long-term: bull market window remains open!
Waller's dissent + pressure from Trump (calling for large rate cuts + potential leadership change after May) suggest the rate cut door is not fully closed. Market pricing indicates a restart of easing in the first half of 2026 (as early as June at the latest).
Halving supply tightening + long-term institutional adoption trend remains unchanged (despite recent ETF outflows of $6B, history shows macro turning points tend to lead to accumulation).
If inflation does not rebound and employment weakens, the new chair may be more crypto-friendly, and BTC returning to 95k+ or even hitting new highs is not a dream. 80k is a strong bottom.
Recommendations:
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in phases, waiting for Powell's residual effects + non-farm payrolls/inflation data before the March FOMC + the dust settles on Trump’s Fed nominations.
Mindset: macro high volatility tests patience. 2026 remains a bull market window—halving cycle + institutional + policy tailwinds keep BTC's status as a hard asset solid. Short-term pressure ≠ trend reversal.
Everyone, once this wave of Fed digestion passes, be patient and wait for signals! 💎🙌 Continue DCA, in the chaos of macro, BTC remains the ace!
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