The "Institutional" camp continuing its steady and prudent approach remains the optimal solution

From the current stage of the US economy and financial markets, the choice of Federal Reserve Chair is more likely to lean towards "Institutional" and "Prudent" rather than radical reformers. The high interest rate cycle is nearing its end, but the decline in inflation is not smooth, and fiscal deficits, debt levels, and geopolitical risks remain high. In this context, both the White House and the markets need a Chairperson who will not create additional uncertainties. Institutional officials typically emphasize gradual adjustments, data dependence, and transparent communication, which help stabilize US Treasury yields and dollar expectations. For capital markets, such candidates imply high "predictability" of monetary policy; although short-term stimulus may be limited, they can reduce systemic volatility risks. If this approach holds, the future policy pace is likely to be "slow rate cuts and prolonged observation," with gold and risk assets entering a structural game phase rather than a one-sided trend. #美联储主席人选预测