January 21 ETH Technical Analysis

- Core conclusion: Daily chart is bearish, short-term weak oscillation; if the rebound weakens, the downtrend will continue, watch for breakthroughs/breakdowns of key support and resistance levels.
- Current price: $2,978 (24h range $2,925-$3,198, down -6.87%).
Key Levels and Indicators
- Daily: Price broke below EMA20 ($3,140) and the 100-day moving average, RSI at 40.06 indicating neutral to weak, MACD shows a dead cross with increasing volume, trend weakening.
- 12h: Retraced to the previous upward retracement level 0.618 at $2,925, combined with weekly moving average support, possibly a short-term rebound.
- 4h: Reversal with a bullish candle, small timeframe shows consolidation and correction needs, but rebound strength is limited.
Support and Resistance (Key Levels)
- Support: $2,925 (strong, 0.618 retracement + moving average), $2,810 (strong, previous dense trading zone).
- Resistance: $3,140 (strong, EMA20), $3,200 (strong, previous high).
Trading Strategies (Actionable)
- Short strategy: Rebound near $3,120-$3,140, build short positions in batches, stop loss at $3,190, target $2,970-$2,925, break below targets $2,810.
- Long strategy: Stabilize at $2,925-$2,940 (e.g., 4h bullish close with volume), try small long positions, stop loss at $2,890, target $3,050-$3,080, exit upon encountering resistance.
- Position and risk control: Total position ≤30%, individual stop loss ≤2%, strictly follow rules, avoid chasing highs and selling lows.
Market Evolution Scenarios
- Optimistic: Hold above $3,140 with volume increase, return to $3,150-$3,200 range for oscillation.
- Neutral: Weak oscillation within $2,925-$3,140, waiting for direction.
- Pessimistic: Break below $2,925 with volume, decline to $2,810, or even test $2,623-$2,700.