2026-01-18 17:50:17

#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The countdown to the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is less than two weeks away, but market expectations for a rate cut in January remain very cautious—according to the latest data, the probability of a rate cut is only around 4.4%.

Interestingly, recent US inflation data has indeed shown a significant slowdown. According to Truflation's statistics, this downward trend is quite notable. Will Powell seize this window to initiate a rate cut this month? This suspense is currently fermenting in the market.

Currently, risk assets are generally reacting sensitively. From $BTC, $ETH to $SOL, the movements of these mainstream cryptocurrencies are all waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve. The positive inflation data should be good news, but the certainty of a rate cut remains to be seen. The statements from the upcoming FOMC meeting are likely to become a turning point for the recent market trend.

BTC1,8%

ETH2,39%

SOL1,12%

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SybilSlayer

· 01-21 13:15

What is this guy Powell thinking? Inflation has already decreased, and he's still pretending not to see it. A 4.4% chance of rate cut is ridiculous. Is he joking with us? When FOMC day arrives, the crypto market is probably going to be on a roller coaster. Where are the supposed positive signals? Why is BTC still standing guard there?

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MevSandwich

· 01-18 18:19

Inflation eases but Powell still dares not move, the 4.4% rate cut probability is really impressive --- Wait, the crypto circle still has to look at the Fed's face. When will these days end? --- Honestly, whether or not to cut interest rates doesn't have as much impact on the current market as you might think; it's mainly about the previous hype. --- How does the FOMC feel more torturous than a bear market these past two weeks? Just come out and stop teasing us. --- Is it harder to cut interest rates when inflation data improves? I don't quite understand this logic. --- BTC still rose with a 4.4% probability, indicating someone has already guessed the bottom. --- Powell's trick is to keep you guessing and then surprise or disappoint you; the market is always being played. --- This round of inflation slowdown isn't really that significant, but the media keeps creating suspense.

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SleepTrader

· 01-18 18:19

4.4% probability? Powell is really steady, he's just teasing us. --- Inflation data improves but the coin price doesn't budge, feels like it's gathering strength for something. --- If there's no rate cut within two weeks, the January market will be like this, so frustrating. --- Waiting for the FOMC statement, but this wave of risk asset reactions is a bit sluggish. --- Wake up, everyone, only 4.4% probability, stop dreaming. --- BTC is waiting for a signal, I'm waiting too, whoever can't hold on first loses. --- Is the downward trend not significant? Then why is the market still so indifferent? --- Inflation falling is a good thing, but why does it feel like no one is buying it? --- There's no need to take advantage of Powell's window period, there won't be another chance after this.

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DegenGambler

· 01-18 18:14

Powell, this guy is really good at keeping people on the edge of their seats. Even though inflation data has decreased, he's still hesitating. A 4.4% chance of rate cut? Isn't that basically saying "no way"? The crypto world probably has to endure a few more weeks of this torment.

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PessimisticLayer

· 01-18 18:09

4.4% probability? Powell probably doesn't want to be a dove --- Inflation is falling, yet they still want to cut interest rates. The market really dares to think that way --- Wait, is the sensitivity of the coin price really due to bearish sentiment or just hype? --- Powell: I'll just watch how anxious you all look --- It's the same old trick, good data doesn't lead to cuts, bad data also doesn't lead to cuts --- The real outcome will be seen two weeks after the FOMC. Discussing now is just pointless --- Where are the signals from mainstream coins? I think they might as well all just fall --- Falling inflation makes it even harder to cut rates, that logic is a bit absurd --- This tone has been consistent since the beginning of the year. Feels like we'll be kept on the hook all year

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MEVSupportGroup

· 01-18 18:06

With a 4.4% probability, how could Powell possibly loosen his stance? Dream on. Good inflation data is useless; the Federal Reserve just wants to scare the market. Two weeks countdown, BTC is about to be played around by financiers again. Are they really going to cut this time? I bet they won't dare. Let's wait and see, once the FOMC speaks, the crypto market will drop again. Good data actually makes it more frightening, meaning there's no excuse to cut anymore. I see through Powell's tactics clearly; it's just a feint.

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