Bitcoin has recently maintained a high-level oscillation pattern, currently hovering around $95,000. Trading volume has significantly shrunk compared to the first half of this week, with a decline of 32%. This volume contraction aligns with weekend market liquidity characteristics but also signals a stalemate between bulls and bears.

From a technical chart perspective, the price is currently within the retracement zone of the high of $126,000 reached at the end of October last year. Interestingly, the current trend logic is almost identical to the performance after a typical ascending triangle breakout in history—after the breakout, it consolidated for 7 trading days, then failed to make a new high and broke below the range, triggering a deep correction. The current situation is equally alarming: the high points are gradually shifting downward, and although the lows are still struggling to hold, this oscillating weakening pattern could easily evolve into a trend reversal.

The $94,000 level has become the current dividing line between bulls and bears, with strong support at $91,500 below. Further down, $88,000 is the last critical defensive position. If the price effectively breaks through the $91,500 to $94,000 range, a new downward trend is likely to be initiated.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors are also undergoing subtle changes. The US dollar index has been declining since its peak in October 2022, entering a weak cycle starting January 2023, with a brief rebound and oscillation from September last year to January this year. Currently, the dollar index remains at the end of its oscillation pattern. A breakout above this range could further intensify risks for risk assets. The tug-of-war effect between dollar strength and the crypto market still exists, and this variable warrants ongoing attention.