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The power struggle for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship has taken a dramatic turn. After a meeting with Trump, BlackRock's bond investment expert Rick Rieder suddenly entered the candidate list, becoming the most unexpected dark horse in this political game. His emergence has disrupted the original situation as incumbent Chair Powell seeks reappointment.
Rieder's policy stance is quite aggressive—advocating for lowering interest rates to 3% as a "neutral" level, believing that the deficit issue is exaggerated, and even suggesting that moderate inflation is not a concern. This set of theories aligns closely with Trump's rate cuts and expansionary fiscal policies. The combination of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and tolerance for higher inflation has been dubbed by the market as an "atypical dovish" position.
But the situation is far from settled. Former Fed Governor Warsh and current Governor Waller are also vying for the position, and the three-way contest has entered its most critical phase. Rieder has a clear shortcoming—he lacks central banking experience, and whether he can pass the "political hurdle" of the Senate remains uncertain. Around next week’s Davos World Economic Forum, Trump is likely to announce his final choice.
The outcome of this power struggle will determine the direction of global financial markets. Whether the Fed’s independence can be maintained, how global interest rates will evolve in the coming years, and what impact this will have on crypto asset valuations—all depend on the conclusion of this game of power. The market can only watch quietly and wait for the next development.