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This week's gold market has indeed been quite volatile, soaring from 4642 on the 14th to a low of 4536 on Friday, with fluctuations exceeding 100 points in between. How to operate next week? The key is to keep an eye on several economic data releases.
On the 17th, US retail sales will be released. If the data falls short of expectations, safe-haven buying will push gold prices higher. But the real highlight is on the 22nd—the CPI inflation data. If this data is low, gold prices may find support or even rise; conversely, if the data is high, gold prices are likely to be suppressed. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials should not be ignored, as they directly influence market expectations for interest rate cuts.
From a technical perspective, the 4530 level is very critical. Holding this level could lead to a rebound to the 4610-4620 range. However, the hurdles at 4610 and 4642 are not easy to break through; each time prices approach these levels, they tend to retreat.
The operational idea is as follows: next week will most likely be dominated by oscillations, with downward pressure favored. Consider shorting on rallies. If the CPI data is really bad, the low point of 4536 might be broken. Conversely, if the data is good, watch whether prices can stabilize within the 4600-4642 range; a breakout above this range could be a signal to go long.
Finally, a reminder: on the day CPI is released, gold prices may fluctuate sharply. Be sure to set proper stop-loss and take-profit points, and avoid chasing highs or panicking during drops.