The tariffs policy of U.S. President Trump is causing another wave. The measures announced on January 17 are no small matter—they target Denmark, France, Germany, and six other European countries, with a 10% increase in tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. starting February 1. Even more severe, on June 1, the rate will directly jump to 25%, unless Europe makes concessions. The trigger for this trade war sounds a bit absurd: fighting for the right to acquire Greenland. But regardless, this has already become a bomb in the global economy.

Europe is furious. French President Macron directly called this "unacceptable" bullying behavior, and European Commission President von der Leyen also didn't hold back, stating the need to "stand united to defend sovereignty." The European Parliament's response is even more hardline—immediately suspending approval of the US-EU trade agreement, with many senior figures considering using "counter-coercion tools" to retaliate. This standoff's escalation makes people worry about what might happen next.

The timing is noteworthy. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday, meaning the shockwave triggered by tariffs is likely to hit full force on Tuesday. Whether various assets can withstand this remains uncertain. The trade friction between the two major Atlantic economies has escalated, potentially becoming the first black swan event of 2026.

What’s more concerning is Trump's aggressive stance during his term. To leave a "historical mark," he seems willing to gamble on anything. Allies? Used as bargaining chips. Coercion through tariffs? Done without hesitation. This approach echoes other radical moves in geopolitics, pushing the world into another turbulent season. For financial markets, this unpredictable political risk is simply a top enemy.

The macro background is also quietly changing. At the Federal Reserve's January meeting, it is highly likely that they will pause further rate cuts. Market expectations suggest there might be only one rate cut around June this year. Against this backdrop, the impact of the trade war could be amplified. The market's downside risks should not be underestimated.