I conducted a technical analysis using over 38 years of historical data on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (from September 1981 to March 2020). Through 17 instances of the three-center divergence at the 40-day level and the confirmation of the breakout of the last decline segment, I reached a conclusion: the era of low interest rates in the United States has come to an end.

March 2020 marked the absolute low point of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Since then, a long-term upward cycle has begun. How certain is this conclusion? Due to the extensive time span, no one on Earth can alter this trend alone.

What will happen next? Let’s speculate on the consequences:

**First, both short-term and long-term bond yields will remain high for a long time.** This means borrowing becomes more expensive, and financing costs rise.

**Second, the stock market will face liquidity exhaustion pressure.** When bond yields are attractive enough, funds will flow from stocks to bonds. The appeal of cash will increase sharply.

**Third, the U.S. will fall into a debt spiral.** The higher the interest rates, the greater the debt pressure. The government will be forced to print dollars to buy bonds, resulting in a significant depreciation of the dollar.

The operational direction is clear: go long on gold, Bitcoin, oil, and natural gas. These assets tend to perform well and resist declines in an environment of high interest rates and a depreciating dollar.

If I had to pick a specific trading opportunity, I am optimistic about the long position in CRCL stock. Building a position at the new low of 64.91 is relatively safe. Why? First, 95% of its revenue comes from U.S. Treasury-related business, and as Treasury yields rise, its income will increase accordingly. Long-term fixed income will be very stable. Second, from a structural perspective, its trend perfectly aligns with the complete structure of the Chan theory, making the profit potential highly certain.

If I do take this position, I will continue to update the exit points. Preliminary resistance levels are at 130 and 215.