Recently, the uncertainty in US fiscal policy has made the market nerves a bit tense. The US Treasury Secretary publicly stated that four candidates for Federal Reserve Chair are already locked in, and the Senate should be able to accept any of them. But this is not what the market cares most about—the real focus is on the ruling of the tariff lawsuit.

The data is there, and prediction platforms show that the court has a 76%-78% probability of ruling the tariffs as illegal. In other words, the market generally bets that the "uphold the original ruling" outcome is more likely. But once the ruling is made, the US Treasury may face a huge tax refund pressure of hundreds of billions of dollars. Where will this money come from? It can only be filled by issuing more government bonds.

This is where it gets interesting. Once bond yields are pushed higher, funds will shift from stocks and cryptocurrencies—risky assets—to bonds—since bonds are now attractive. For the crypto market, this means liquidity is being drained. And liquidity, simply put, is the fuel that drives prices higher. Without fuel, how can the market burn?

In the short term, regardless of the final ruling, this uncertainty itself is a bomb. Market volatility could suddenly spike, and investors instinctively hedge—at this time, cryptocurrencies are usually not safe havens, and they are more likely to be hit. Plus, with the increasing correlation between crypto and US stocks recently, a fluctuation in US stocks can cause the crypto market to shake.

Now, the crypto market is basically in a wait-and-see mode, with all parties waiting for this macro event to settle. Before the ruling comes out, no one wants to take the initiative to act.