Institutions are bullish on tech stocks, but market sentiment is a bit crazy.

Wedbush Global Technology Research Head Dan Ives recently made a big prediction: by 2026, tech stocks will rise by 20-25%. What's his logic? Just four words—AI is just getting started.

Ives compares the current situation to "1996 rather than 1999," meaning we are still in the early stages of AI investment. Based on on-the-ground research, he found that corporate demand for AI is very hot, and over the next three years, companies and governments will invest $3 trillion in AI technology. By 2026, large tech companies alone will spend $600 billion on capital expenditures. Can Q4 earnings reports from cloud giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon verify this expectation? Ives bets they will deliver strong results.

It sounds very promising, but the risks are not small. The "bull and bear indicator" from US banks has soared to a historic high of 9.3, and institutional cash ratios have fallen to 3.3%. In other words, market enthusiasm is extremely high right now, and buying pressure is already very crowded. If Q4 earnings just meet expectations without exceeding them, or if capital expenditure guidance is not as optimistic as expected, a large number of high-position investors might all rush out to sell.

So, this AI feast looks bullish in the short term, but beware of the "expectation realization as negative" sword.