2026-01-18 15:30:56

Entering late January, the crypto market will迎来 a series of policy information windows. Several key dates this week are worth planning ahead.

Tuesday (1.20): U.S. stock markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Federal Reserve has no specific liquidity injection plans, only routine liquidity operations—this does not signal a policy-friendly stance. For holders, this is an opportunity to buy the dip in stages at low levels, but set a 3%-5% take-profit line; rigidly chasing highs will only get you cut.

Wednesday (1.21): The Beige Book will not be released; focus shifts to speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The market is especially sensitive to interest rate expectations, so follow your established plan, keep your positions flexible, and avoid being disturbed by one or two remarks.

Thursday (1.22): Trump may issue statements related to tariffs; specific arrangements are still uncertain, but comments can easily stir market sentiment. The response is simple: first reduce leverage to stabilize risk control, and wait until the news is confirmed and the market direction is clear before making adjustments.

Friday (1.23): The Federal Reserve's balance sheet report (H.4.1) will be released as usual, and the President of the New York Fed will also speak. These two pieces of information should be viewed together—whether the balance sheet is expanding or shrinking, combined with the tone of the speech, to comprehensively assess the situation. Never draw conclusions based on a single data point.

Additionally, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on January 26 (next Monday). The market generally expects the BOJ to keep interest rates unchanged, but the wording regarding inflation trends and future rate hikes is the key. Stick to routine risk management; there's no need for excessive hedging.

The entire next week is a buildup to the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, which is a decisive moment. The core principles of operation are: build positions gradually, strictly control risks, avoid blindly following the trend, and stay away from unreliable news. The short-term fluctuations of Bitcoin and Ethereum largely depend on how these macro events unfold.

BTC2,8%

ETH4,1%

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LiquidationOracle

· 01-21 15:23

Staggered entry, 3%-5% take profit is indeed reliable, but I'm just worried that people might get too enthusiastic and chase the high with full positions, risking being eaten. Wait, will Trump’s tariff comments be released this week? Keep an eye on it, withdrawing leverage first is the wise move. FOMC is the main factor; at that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum will really depend on the Federal Reserve’s stance. Don’t be fooled by a single speech; expanding or shrinking the balance sheet is the decisive factor, as single data points can be easily manipulated. The Bank of Japan also needs to be watched; their inflation rhetoric often hints at underlying signals. Honestly, this policy window is quite tight, so risk control must be well managed, or you might get cut badly.

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TopBuyerBottomSeller

· 01-21 08:02

Another batch of policy windows, my goodness, these past two weeks have been truly exhausting. Hmm… first reduce leverage, I’ve learned my lesson, I don’t want to be repeatedly liquidated. Trump is about to stir things up again, enough said, I’ve already cut my losses in half. FOMC is the real show, decisions on the 27th-28th will determine everything, right now is the best time to watch the drama unfold. The Bank of Japan meeting doesn’t matter anymore, the Federal Reserve is the real boss. Gradually enter the market, strictly control risks, easy to say, hard to do, brother. Taking profits at 3%-5% is really ingrained in my DNA, I won’t chase highs anymore. The Beige Book not releasing actually keeps things quiet, paying more attention to the Fed’s words is more important. Bitcoin and Ethereum are probably going to be rollercoaster rides again in the next two weeks, I’m just here watching the show. Look at the balance sheet and speeches, single data points can really be deceiving. This week is safest to lie low, wait for the real big event before making moves. Buy on dips in batches, listening to the US, I just keep wanting to catch the bottom. Comments can easily disturb the rhythm, I need to learn to cover my eyes and not look. Focus on risk control first, then worry about other things, otherwise one correction could wipe out my position.

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0xDreamChaser

· 01-20 17:35

The busy policy week is here. Honestly, I feel like I'm starting to get exhausted again. Hold or trade? FOMC day will definitely be a big event, but analyzing a week in advance might lead to overtrading. Trump's mouth really causes more turmoil than Federal Reserve officials, take that seriously. The market reaction to the Bank of Japan's meeting is often overlooked, but the linkage effect definitely exists. The suggestion of taking profit at 3%-5% might be a bit conservative, considering the current market volatility... Leverage should be reduced decisively when necessary; don't rely on luck. Let's go back to fundamentals and not get carried away by short-term noise—that's the secret to lasting longer. If Bitcoin can't hold steady this week, the bulls might have to readjust their expectations.

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MevSandwich

· 01-18 15:56

If the deficit doesn't come out, it's all talk; let's see the real deal on the 27th. No matter how loud the hype is now, it ultimately depends on what the Fed says. --- I believe in the strategy of building positions gradually, but when it comes to critical moments, who the hell can hold up... It's all just fooling around. --- Leverage, huh? Usually reluctant to reduce it, but when something happens, you can't escape. Easier said than done. --- It's both a policy window and risk control. Let's see what kind of tricks Trump is planning to pull this time. --- Is there anyone who can really take profit at 3%-5%? Anyway, I haven't seen it. --- The Bank of Japan is also joining the fun. Central banks worldwide are putting on a show, retail investors just watch as spectators. --- Bitcoin's rise and fall all depend on these guys' moods. We should just eat and sleep. --- Next Thursday, Trump is going to make a move. That’s the real black swan. Who dares to go all-in without thinking?

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airdrop_huntress

· 01-18 15:49

Another round of policy bombardment, I just want to know who can successfully bottom fish from this information gap. Leverage first drops, don't panic, wait for the FOMC to speak. As soon as Trump opens his mouth, I knew something was going to happen. Stay calm and watch. It's okay if you don't make money this week, as long as you don't get liquidated, you've already won. H.4.1 report combined with speeches—reading them separately just shows a mentality of being a leek. Let's see the real deal on 1.27; the previous parts were just setup. There's actually no suspense on the Bank of Japan side; everyone is watching the FOMC. The idea of building positions in batches—I am the type to buy the dip while falling and regret it. Unreliable news is everywhere; who the hell can tell the difference? When the interest rate trend shifts, the whole rhythm gets chaotic, and we still have to rely on discipline to survive.

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notSatoshi1971

· 01-18 15:42

Damn, another week of bloodshed and chaos, FOMC definitely going to explode that day --- Basically, just waiting for the 27th, everything before is just cannon fodder information --- I just want to know if Trump will talk nonsense again, that guy is really something --- Gradually building positions is really foolproof, last year I got wiped out because I went all-in --- Not releasing the Beige Book actually relaxed me, fewer variables --- Bank of Japan maintaining status quo? I bet five bucks they’ll still pretend to be very cautious --- I don’t have the discipline to set a 3%-5% take-profit line, I truly am controlled by my inner demon

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HodlVeteran

· 01-18 15:41

Another batch of policy windows, as an experienced trader I just fear these "critical moments," always stepping into traps I just want to say—don't go all-in, really, I got caught like that in 2018 Looking at this schedule, I get a headache, five risk points a week, a slight mistake and you'll lose a layer of skin The key is still that sentence: risk control is everything, leverage is just for cutting people Bitcoin's rise and fall, honestly, depends on how these central bank folks are talking, as retail investors, just manage your own mindset The old waves are gone, everyone new to the game should play it safe

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