I recently looked at Bitcoin's trend, and the decline pattern around 97,963 is quite interesting, resembling a leading wedge pattern. If this judgment is correct, the probability of the first scenario is gradually increasing.

Since the position at 80,524, I have listed several possible development directions, ranked from most to least likely: First, a horizontal correction of wave Y on the blue line, forming wave XX; second, a zigzag correction of wave Y on the blue line, also forming wave XX; third, a zigzag correction of the decline from the 126,296 top, or the start of a new upward move. On a medium level, only breaking below 80,524 would form a relatively perfect structure.

From a different perspective, there are two main possibilities for the market since 74,500: super cycle 3-5 or super cycle 5. The expected lows in these two scenarios differ greatly.

If it's a super cycle 3-5 scenario (relatively higher probability), this correction level would be equivalent to the segment from 69,000 to 15,450, with the correction endpoint generally above the psychological level of 69,000. The cheaper range is roughly between 70,878 and 83,956.

If super cycle 5 has already completed at 126,200, then a decline greater than 53,591 could occur afterward. In other words, the price could fall below 72,609, and the cheaper range would be between 48,245 and 72,609.

To be honest, these are just personal analyses based on wave theory and do not constitute any trading advice. Just for reference.