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In China, what can best resist inflation?
There won't be hyperinflation here.
Just look at the CPI and you'll know—no matter how much money is printed, there won't be runaway inflation. Why?
Because our CPI is anchored to daily consumer goods.
And the money issued through printing hasn't entered the consumption side!!
So the pressure on daily consumer goods is very small.
Ordinary people don't have much need to fight inflation.
No matter how much you earn, you can still eat. A bunch of poor people produce and consume among themselves, and that doesn't cause inflation.
So what absorbs trillions of printing money? The investment market. State-owned enterprises, banks, local governments.
But they won't distribute money directly to the people.
They are used for investment, but investments lacking market guidance tend to become infrastructure projects and the pockets of middlemen.
And middlemen don't consume much; they mainly buy houses and transfer assets overseas.
In other words, most of that investment turns into asset price bubbles and some people's overseas assets.
The common people haven't gained from printing trillions of money; instead, most have taken on mortgage debt.
So what about now? The logic has changed. The money being printed now won't flow into real estate to push prices up.
So there's no need to worry about housing prices rising anymore. Why? Because after the real estate bubble bursts, upstream and downstream companies will all face debt defaults, with just Xu's company alone owing two trillion.
The money being printed now is basically used for damage control—covering previous debts.
Paying interest on local government financing vehicles and similar entities. There's no spare cash to play around.
And you ask, even if large-scale printing is used to pay interest and debts for village enterprises and local government projects, ultimately, the money still ends up in the hands of migrant workers and small upstream and downstream business owners. Isn't that money still going to the consumption side? If so, then yes, it would cause inflation. But that's a relatively good scenario.
After all, when ordinary people have money, it can promote low-end consumption. But the problem is, due to a magical distribution mechanism, migrant workers' wages are too low, and profit margins for upstream and downstream private supply companies are too thin, so they can't share much.
Therefore, most people's markets don't have much currency. In other words, under conditions of extremely high NIR (Net Interest Rate), it is actually conducive to preventing hyperinflation.
The greater the wealth gap, the more prone to deflation. So, most of the money flows into the international market. In other words, the printed money is mainly exchanged for foreign currency to spend abroad.
This is the most dangerous situation. They occupy too much offshore currency, leading to fewer foreign exchange quotas for resource imports.
This greatly increases the cost of resource imports, sharply raising production costs. Meanwhile, on the consumption side, deflation persists, and with no money, upstream and downstream transaction prices can't rise. This leads to increased losses and continuous debt accumulation.
Directly causing independent private enterprises to go bankrupt.
In the end, only two types of private enterprises remain: one is those directly earning from exports—foundational, self-sustaining enterprises.
The other supports village enterprises; if village enterprises fail, they are continuously subsidized.
As previously analyzed, village enterprises' debts keep growing, production pressure increases, and they can only rely on printing money to balance accounts. But the money provided will inevitably become insufficient, leading to decreased production capacity and no room for innovation.
Gradually, production willingness declines, causing shortages of materials. The nationwide material shortages in Suzhou are exactly this way.
This level of analysis surpasses most economists; I believe I am the first to clearly explain this online.
Now, let's talk about buying houses. The logic of the housing market has changed. Just look at social media. Xiaohongshu is flooded with posts regretting buying houses—most talk about losing half or 80%. Society's mindset has completely shifted; confidence in real estate is thoroughly destroyed. Most people have figured out that at worst, they'll rent.
A market where no one is willing to buy and sell is inactive and won't grow. So, buying houses to fight inflation is not feasible. What about buying gold? No.
Because gold is pegged to the US dollar exchange rate. This is another clever move by our mother. Offshore and onshore, two pools.
(Really admire our mother here—she catches everything tightly in one net after another.) The gold you buy is always priced according to the offshore exchange rate. Offshore dollars are strictly limited in exchange volume, ensuring total stability, so the exchange rate hardly fluctuates.
In other words, no matter how much money you print, gold prices won't rise. The offshore price remains unchanged relative to the onshore. So, gold prices are basically unrelated to domestic inflation.
For example, if inflation occurs and now 100 yuan can only buy one kilogram of eggs, but 100 yuan can still buy 0.1 grams of gold, why? Because they won't let you take physical gold out; what you take is water-injected gold, and if you want to sell it, only banks will buy. If you want to exchange gold for cash, there's nowhere to do it—only banks accept USD valuation.
Additionally, leaving the country with gold is completely prohibited, but entering with gold has no restrictions.
The same applies to buying US dollars. Offshore RMB exchange rates are always stable. No matter how much the onshore RMB's purchasing power declines, your USD in the account won't appreciate. So, is buying big A shares feasible? No.
State-owned enterprises and local governments, when they have money, haven't paid it out to you.
Now there's no land wealth, and big A shares are just a cash machine.
Basically, all the upward momentum is just a trap for the next round of harvesting.
If you get in, you're just fish meat. Someone suggested buying oil stocks. How many years have oil stocks been in the red? Big A shares don't have good or bad; the logic is the same—cash machines.
As for BTC and other big fat fish, if you don't have some serious gold-plated diamond, better not touch it. So, what can resist inflation? I told you at the beginning.
Stop overthinking; nothing can withstand it. Just eat, spend, learn IELTS, take exams. Physical strength can fight inflation.
Because inflation that can't be accounted for, the difficulty of human survival, and resource acquisition are actually only related to one thing: your social status. If you are integrated into the core group, even if inflation occurs, your salary will still rise, with the cost borne by outsiders.