2026-01-18 14:30:53

Recent news has been a mix of positive and negative signals, but the overall sentiment remains pessimistic, and market panic is strong. Therefore, the market is likely to open with a gap down tomorrow, with an estimated opening price around 4083.

Many people are watching the continuous outflow of the broad-based ETF, but I think this shouldn't be the main reference. Looking at individual stocks makes it clear—some stocks appear to have continuous large outflows of funds, yet one day they suddenly jump with a big bullish candle. Fund inflows and outflows, frankly, are like magic tricks; they can be misleading.

However, the stocks hitting the limit down are worth paying attention to. Regulatory authorities are clearly controlling malicious speculation, and the era of small-cap or poorly performing stocks being manipulated is over. But the reality is, tomorrow 23 stocks are facing three consecutive limit-downs, many of which are hitting the limit with a single order. In this situation, these stocks are likely to be targeted for short-term rebounds. Once a stock is no longer tightly sealed at the limit down, a large amount of funds can be released, which can temporarily halt the downward emotional trend.

So the question is: with the market opening gap down, will the entire market decline tomorrow?

I don't think so. If we have to say there's a broad decline, it would only be at the opening. After the market opens, the number of stocks rising should gradually increase.

In other words, tomorrow is likely to open low and then move higher, closing with a bullish candle. On the All-A index, this should manifest as a small positive candle near the 10-day moving average. If next Monday the All-A index indeed closes with a small bullish candle, then Tuesday is very likely to see another bullish move.

We'll continue to observe how it develops tomorrow.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

22 Likes

Reward
22
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

JustHodlIt

· 01-20 21:41

Capital flow is just a gimmick; the limit-down rebound is the real show today. Opening low and rising high—how many times have we heard this? It always feels like a gamble. 23 stocks hit the limit-down with straight-limit boards; this round is indeed quite fierce.

View OriginalReply0

SnapshotStriker

· 01-19 10:53

Capital inflows and outflows are just like magic tricks. That's a brilliant way to put it. I'm already tired of those data enthusiasts obsessing over ETF flows and getting excited over nothing. The trick of pulling the board can work. Tomorrow, with 23 stocks hitting the limit down in a straight line, it really depends on whether anyone dares to buy. That's the key. I've heard the logic of opening low and closing high too many times. Hopefully, this time isn't just another "gap up."

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunterKing

· 01-18 15:00

Damn, is it another trick of capital flow? I learned this when I was arbitraging and profiting earlier; it's easy to get caught by the surface data, brother. 23 stocks hit the limit down? Man, isn't this just a celebration for the whales manipulating the market, like checking interaction records with airdrop contracts, gotta watch closely. Open low and rise high, sounds just like the thrill I felt when I spent a hundred bucks on gas fees and then tripled my profit, but we'll see when the market opens. This explanation is interesting, but if it really closes with a positive line tomorrow, I'll believe you once.

View OriginalReply0

Layer2Observer

· 01-18 14:57

Fund flow is like performing magic; this analogy is quite interesting. But to be honest, the logic behind the 23 decline limit hits still needs further validation, as there seem to be too many variables.

View OriginalReply0

0xSleepDeprived

· 01-18 14:56

The phrase "capital outflow" has become cliché; frankly, the data can be misleading. Watching individual stocks is the real deal. I believe in the scenario of opening lower and then rising, and tomorrow should be like that. Once the funds that triggered the pullback are released, market sentiment can ease. The 23 stocks hitting the limit-down and about to break the limit are the key tomorrow. Let's see who will step in to take over.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-2fce706c

· 01-18 14:50

I've always said that during these times, the biggest test is mental resilience. The key is the capital leverage, don't be fooled by ETF outflows. Don't just focus on the limit-down; the opportunity is precisely at the moment of leverage. Having the first-mover advantage is very important. I see this wave of opening low and closing high as a clear signal. Next week is the real window for strategic positioning. Time waits for no one. 23 limit-down? That's just a major trend adjustment. Those who understand are already waiting at the high ground. Capital flow is like magic; frankly, it all depends on who can seize the moment of release. A bullish candle near the 10-day moving average—I've studied this logic three years ago. It's really a pity if you're still doubting it now. A limit-down trigger will cause big funds to rush in. This is an unmissable signal. While others panic, I see opportunities. The answer will be clear tomorrow. Whether to follow along is up to you.

View OriginalReply0

SmartContractPlumber

· 01-18 14:47

Fund flow is like reentrancy vulnerabilities in smart contracts; on the surface, it looks like a severe outflow, but it might actually be a trick to perform arbitrage, which can be misleading. The pivoting mechanism is quite interesting, as if trying to break a locked permission control. Once broken, funds will burst out.

View OriginalReply0

IfIWereOnChain

· 01-18 14:43

Capital flow is just a smokescreen; don't get fooled by it. I'm tired of the "gap up and then rise" narrative; the key is whether the support can hold. 23 stocks hit the limit down in one word, that's what to watch for tomorrow.

View OriginalReply0