Gold and silver markets have been oscillating and consolidating recently, but next week could bring significant changes. A series of major events and data releases will likely break this stalemate and have a decisive impact on the gold market trend.

Trade and Geopolitics: Safe-Haven Sentiment on the Edge

From a trade perspective, uncertainty around tariff policies has become the market's focus. The trade relationship between the US and the EU may face new pressures. If it escalates into a trade war, safe-haven funds typically flow heavily into precious metals markets, with gold and silver often being the first choices.

Additionally, do not overlook the situation in the Middle East. Although domestic tensions have temporarily eased, the increase in regional military forces still carries the risk of conflict. Historical experience tells us that any signs of geopolitical tension can quickly push safe-haven asset prices higher.

Domestic US: Judicial Rulings as a Key Variable

A more direct catalyst comes from the US Supreme Court. Several major rulings this week relate to the legality of trade policies, directly affecting market expectations regarding policy continuity and stability. Regardless of which side the rulings favor, they could trigger a re-pricing in the short term—either policy uncertainties or doubts about judicial independence. In either case, investors may increase their allocations to precious metals.

Next week's market direction will largely depend on how these events unfold. For holders of gold and silver, managing risks and responding to events will be especially important.