Does the four-year cycle curse of Bitcoin still hold true? This is a question worth discussing.

From an optimistic perspective, BTC's fifth wave may present a terminal ascending triangle pattern. This suggests that the bull market hasn't fully ended yet, and there could be one last upward wave, with a peak expected around April or May. What is this prediction based on? It all starts with the规律 of historical cycles.

Looking at the past three cycles separately, each can be divided into three phases: uptrend, downtrend, and sideways consolidation at the bottom. Careful observation reveals some interesting patterns. The downtrend phase is the most stable, lasting about a year. The uptrend lasts roughly two years but exhibits more volatility than the downtrend. The least regular is the bottom sideways consolidation—Cycle three is more than twice as long as cycle two, and in cycle four, it directly disappears, with its duration even shrinking to zero.

Now, the situation has changed. With the large influx of ETF and US stock funds into the Bitcoin market, BTC's performance is increasingly resembling that of traditional US stocks, and the cycle structure is beginning to adjust. It is very likely that a new four-year cycle framework will form:

First is the uptrend phase. According to the new pattern, this phase should last about three years. If we expect a peak around October 6, 2025, this cycle's uptrend would be close to three years. Optimistically, it could extend to three and a half years, mainly because the fifth wave has formed a rare terminal ascending triangle, a time-consuming特殊形态. Future cycles are unlikely to take so long.

Second is the downtrend phase. Historical data shows this phase is the most stable, lasting about one year. There’s no reason to believe this规律 will change.

Finally, the bottom sideways consolidation. This may completely disappear. Why? Because US stock indices rarely experience bottom震荡阶段, and since BTC is becoming more stock-like, it probably won't frequently have bottom sideways periods in the future.

This analytical framework is based on the evolution of BTC's historical cycles. Whether it will truly follow this logic depends on how the market develops.