Want to quickly judge if a Web3 project is reliable? There's a super simple method—compare it to the risk-free rate.

What is the risk-free rate? Simply put: the return you can get without doing anything. The current market situation is like this—U.S. Treasury bonds are stable at 4%-5%, and the actual yield of high-quality stablecoins is also around 4%-6%. This line is the passing threshold set by the market for all investments.

Conversely, if a project’s long-term return is only about 5%, why would you gamble on volatility, exit risks, liquidation risks, and regulatory risks? It’s simply not worth it.

Let’s look at what history tells us. During the 2021-2022 wave, DeFi projects wildly promised 50%, 100%, even 300% APY. But what was the result? The returns relied entirely on token hyperinflation, with real cash flow close to zero. When token prices fell, these figures collapsed immediately. Real returns? -20%, -50%, and in severe cases, -90%. These projects never even reached the passing line.

Later, these projects changed their pitch: "Stable 8%-12% annualized." Celsius and BlockFi used this line to attract funds, but both eventually collapsed. The problem is straightforward—when the risk-free rate is only 3%, why would they stably offer me 10%? Mathematically, it simply doesn’t add up.

So, returning to the starting point: the first step of any investment is to beat the risk-free rate. If you can’t get past this hurdle, all subsequent promises are empty talk. Those projects offering returns worse than government bonds but with risks that are wildly higher—what exactly are they selling?