2026-01-18 14:21:51

JPMorgan recently issued a warning that approximately $55 billion of US debt faces downgrade to junk status, while another $63 billion of investment-grade bonds are hovering on the edge of junk. This "bad debt" scale is not small, but the market doesn't seem to have reacted yet.

Currently, the spread is relatively low, and everything appears calm, but this risk factor could be triggered at any time. Once a credit crisis erupts and a sell-off ensues, Bitcoin is likely to follow suit and decline in the short term. This has been the common pattern during past financial shocks.

However, there is a key turning point— the attitude of the Federal Reserve. History shows that as long as the central bank initiates a rescue mode and releases liquidity, the market will rebound. The 2020 wave is a typical example: Bitcoin surged from around $4,000 to $60,000.

Therefore, the key is to watch two signals: the direction of the spread and the Federal Reserve's policy movements. Those who can interpret this liquidity-driven market logic will have the opportunity to profit amid volatility.

BTC-1,57%

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CodeZeroBasis

· 01-21 13:47

Here we go again, every time saying there will be a downgrade... why hasn't the market moved yet?

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 01-20 09:06

It's the same old script of "crisis → rescue → surge." I bet the Federal Reserve will ultimately step in to rescue, and it will once again be a grand feast of wealth transfer.

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shadowy_supercoder

· 01-18 14:52

Oh my god, it's another junk bond risk. Is the market really sleeping... Let's wait for the Federal Reserve to take action.

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GasWhisperer

· 01-18 14:51

ngl the fed's gonna brrr eventually, that's the only plot twist that matters here... mempool's already pricing it in imo

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DisillusiionOracle

· 01-18 14:45

It's the same old story, Federal Reserve saving the market = Bitcoin soaring? Fine, let's just pretend 2020 can be replicated.

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RetiredMiner

· 01-18 14:30

Is this the same logic of "The central bank rescues the market and it rebounds"? Is history really that easy to replicate? Oops, no, this time the debt scale is really a bit large... The interest rate spread is so low, which is indeed a bit strange. We have to wait and see how the Federal Reserve responds. Understanding liquidity is key, but the premise is to survive until that moment, haha. The 120 billion debt bomb is still sleeping? If the Federal Reserve doesn't intervene, this show will be even more exciting. Short-term follow-up dips, but in the long run, it depends on what the main players think.

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