The latest US unemployment insurance claims data has been released, with initial claims reaching 198,000, marking the first week after the holiday period. In comparison, the continued claims remain stable at 1.884 million, both outperforming the average performance in the second half of 2025.

More notably, the four-week moving average of initial claims has already fallen to 205,000, a new two-year low. In other words, the overall volatility in the labor market is converging, and the data is becoming increasingly stable.

From a historical perspective, this number is quite interesting—unless there is an upward revision later, this week will be only the eighth week in the past 50 years where initial claims have stayed below 200,000. Considering the unique impacts of the two COVID-19 shocks, excluding those data points makes this achievement even more rare.