ETH is only 4% away from the $1 billion liquidation level. How can the dual risks of bulls and bears be mitigated?

According to the latest data, Ethereum is currently in a sensitive price range. If ETH breaks above $3,463, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.023 billion; conversely, if it falls below $3,165, the long liquidation strength will also reach $1.023 billion. ETH’s current price is $3,324.46, precisely between these two liquidation pressure levels, forming a “risk corridor.”

Precise Location of Liquidation Pressure

Based on Coinglass data, Ethereum faces symmetrical liquidation pressure:

This symmetrical distribution of liquidation reflects a relatively balanced position among market participants but also indicates significant liquidation risks whether moving upward or downward.

Bulls Are Dominant but Under Pressure

Recent price performance shows that bulls are clearly in the lead. ETH has risen 7.03% over the past 7 days and 12.31% over 30 days, demonstrating strong upward momentum. According to options data from Greeks.live, ETH options expiring this week have a notional value of $430 million, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.04, indicating that put options are slightly more prevalent than call options, but the difference is not large, and market sentiment remains relatively neutral to optimistic.

But risk signals are also flashing

Meanwhile, some on-chain signals warrant attention:

• Ethereum OG whale 0xB3E8 deposited 13,083 ETH (about $43.35 million) into Gemini over the past two days, widely interpreted as a sell signal
• A trader used maximum leverage to short 18,261 ETH on Hyperliquid, with a liquidation price of $3,380, only about $55 above the current price
• These behaviors suggest that both bullish and bearish forces are actively positioning in the market

Can Institutional Entry Change the Situation?

A recent positive signal is that institutional investors are accelerating their entry. Morgan Stanley has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. SEC to launch spot ETFs tracking Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum. Such institutional participation typically brings incremental capital to the market, potentially supporting a breakout above the short liquidation level at $3,463.

Meanwhile, discussions about ETH’s monetary properties are heating up. Market opinions suggest that, with an approximately 0.8% controllable inflation rate and genuine DeFi utility, ETH can serve as a store of value. This cognitive upgrade may attract more long-term capital.

Summary

ETH is currently in a highly balanced but tense position. Moving upward requires breaking through the $1.023 billion short liquidation pressure, while downward support depends on holding the same scale of long liquidation defenses. In the short term, the pace of institutional entry and the attitude shift of whales will be key variables. Technically, $3,463 is the most critical recent breakout level; once successfully surpassed, it could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, and vice versa. Investors should closely monitor this price range, as the next move is likely to determine the market direction for the near future.