Recently, I’ve been monitoring the data on the contract charts and found some interesting points.

**Account and Capital Segregation**

Retail traders are mostly holding short positions, accounting for about 70%, with longs less than 30%. It seems retail traders are collectively bearish, but the big players are doing the opposite—they hold about 60% long positions, with only 40% short. This creates an awkward situation: large traders are quietly accumulating positions, while retail traders are rushing to short. The long-to-short position ratio remains stable between 1.27 and 1.31, indicating that the big players’ confidence is not a temporary move.

**Capital Flooding In**

The total open interest and total value of contracts have been steadily increasing, which is no small matter. The funding rate is currently positive at 0.0378%, meaning longs are paying shorts. This market behavior suggests that most traders are betting on a rise, and bullish sentiment is strong. The basis remains positive and continues to widen, with contract prices firmly above the index price—these are strong signals of buying momentum.

**Details of Active Buying and Selling**

At 21:30 and 23:25, two sudden peaks of active buying appeared, with buy volumes clearly surpassing sell volumes. This indicates that longs are actively initiating attacks, not just following the trend passively. The ratio of open interest to market value has been rising, leverage is increasing, and combined with the large traders’ long positions, this momentum is quite robust.

**How to View the Future Market**

The probability of continued short-term upward movement is between 75% and 85%. Large traders holding predominantly long positions, positive funding rates, expanding basis, and strong active buying all point to a typical bullish attack rhythm.

However, risks should also be considered. With retail traders so bearish, if large traders start taking profits or if suddenly negative news hits the market, there could be a small correction. But overall, the trend remains upward.