The US core CPI unexpectedly declined, which introduces quite a few uncertainties to the market. The market has not fully digested the rate cut expectations, and combined with the recent leadership's comments on the central bank personnel arrangements deviating from market expectations, the crypto market has experienced a slight dip.

My personal contract strategy is simple—this weekend, I will first take a small long position, and wait for opportunities to add more at lower levels. But the real risk lies ahead.

Currently, less than half of the US Congress-approved budget bill has been passed, and the remaining half is still being debated. The critical date is January 30th. If no new plan is approved or if there is a temporary delay, the US government will face another partial shutdown. It’s important to note that once a shutdown occurs, market liquidity will immediately tighten, and risk assets are usually not immune from being sold off en masse—similar to the scene in December last year, which is likely to repeat.

In extreme cases, SOL might even drop below 130.

ETH is a different story. I am personally very optimistic about it. The large-scale issuance of stablecoins, combined with continued support from well-known funds, makes it very likely to break through $4,000 in the first half of this year. However, on the way to $4,000, volatility is inevitable, and a bumpy ride is expected.

To see SOL's lows again, a necessary condition is for the US Congress to fall into another shutdown, severely draining liquidity. But the market is never driven by a single factor, and sudden changes are normal. Those trading contracts need to stay constantly alert to news developments; even a half-step lag could mean losing money.