The start of the year in the crypto market has indeed been full of energy. In mid-January, Bitcoin surged straight up to the $97,000 mark, hitting a nearly two-month high with a daily increase of 4%. Ethereum followed closely, stabilizing above $3,300, while mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE surged over 8%. The total market capitalization has once again broken through the $3.1 trillion threshold.

The underlying data is quite solid. Over the past three days, spot ETF net inflows reached $1.7 billion, with a leading institution’s product absorbing $648 million in a single day. Meanwhile, cooling CPI has ignited market expectations for rate cuts, with over $200 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours. Bitcoin’s actual circulating supply is only 16 million coins, which is also noteworthy—its scarcity truly surpasses gold.

But the reversal can happen just as quickly. A certain policy document that was supposed to be advanced was suddenly delayed, some top trading platforms withdrew from related negotiations, and regulatory uncertainties have resurfaced. At the same time, institutions like MicroStrategy are still aggressively accumulating, now holding a total of 13,000 BTC. In comparison, just at the beginning of January, there was a tragic event where 160,000 traders were liquidated simultaneously.

So the current situation is—on one side, institutions continue to leverage up; on the other, retail traders are frequently getting liquidated, with a wall of opacity from policy uncertainties in between. From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin retraces below $95,000, it could be a relatively safe window for re-accumulation. Ethereum needs to hold the $3,200 support level. Whether it breaks above $100,000 or pulls back below $90,000 in the short term, no one can give a definitive answer right now.