#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 The Federal Reserve's independence becomes a focal point, with hawkish forces strengthening instead

The recent political tug-of-war has intensified market polarization regarding the Fed's direction. The Trump administration's pressure on the Fed chair has escalated, originally aiming to promote more moderate monetary policy, but market participants and analysts instead predict that the Fed will adopt a more hawkish stance to safeguard its independence. This counterproductive effect is clearly reflected in recent data.

Polymarket's betting data provides a clear signal: the probability of the Fed chair resigning mid-year has dropped from 74% to 45%, and the expectation of stepping down before the end of the year has fallen from 85% to 62%. This reflects a market re-pricing of policy independence—the more intense the political interference, the more the market believes the Fed will stand firm to relieve pressure. Meanwhile, candidates perceived as more politically compromising have seen a significant decline in popularity, while hawkish candidates' voices are rising.

Industry insiders generally believe that once monetary policy is forced to compromise with political pressure, leading to a resurgence of inflation, the damage to the Fed's credibility will be greater. So rather than a policy struggle, it's more of an institutional struggle—the Fed is defending its decision-making independence by maintaining a hawkish stance. There seemed to be some tacit arrangement between both sides before, but recent judicial investigations have broken this delicate balance.

What is the result? The hawkish forces within the Fed have been further reinforced, and the plan to push dovish policies has failed. This combination of measures instead consolidates the current policy orientation.

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