On-chain improvement signals have appeared, but insufficient capital inflow remains the biggest obstacle to Bitcoin's upward movement.

Bitcoin has experienced a period of temporary pressure at the end of 2025, but on-chain structures are showing positive signals. According to the latest news, Matrixport’s weekly report indicates that multiple valuation and holding indicators are stabilizing, and the market appears to be emerging from a fragile phase rather than entering a new round of retracement. However, behind this optimism, two main factors—insufficient capital inflows and limited willingness among long-term holders to increase their positions—are constraining upward momentum.

Signs of Improvement Are Evident, But Not Strong Enough

From on-chain data, improvements are indeed occurring. Matrixport’s tactical assessment remains cautiously bullish, provided that prices stay above key structural support levels. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $95,332.89, up 4.91% over the past 7 days, with a 30-day increase of 10.30%. These figures support the view that the market is “coming out of a fragile phase.”

Specific manifestations of improvement

• Multiple valuation indicators are stabilizing, indicating that the market bottom characteristics are becoming clearer
• Holding indicators are improving, suggesting a healthier market structure
• Downside risks have contracted compared to earlier, with a decreasing probability of extreme declines
• Short-term price volatility is easing, and the de-leveraging in the options market is largely complete

The True Constraints: Incremental Capital and Willingness to Hold

This recovery faces two core limitations, which directly determine the subsequent trend:

Insufficient capital inflows

Continuous inflow of new funds is essential to drive prices higher. According to relevant data, Bitcoin options exposure has decreased from a peak of $52 billion in October 2025 to $28 billion, reflecting a significant slowdown in short-term market capital inflows. This is not only a phenomenon in the options market but also a deeper reflection of the overall market’s capital attitude—more cautious and selective.

Limited willingness among long-term holders to increase their positions

The actions of long-term holders often represent the depth of market confidence. When this group’s willingness to accumulate is limited, it indicates that even if short-term funds push prices up, sustained trends are unlikely. This makes rebounds prone to cooling off.

Key Observation: Insights from Options De-leverage

It is worth noting that the “long futures positions + put options hedging” combination in the Ethereum market is being gradually unwound, indicating that the market is actively reducing risk and de-leveraging. This is consistent with Bitcoin’s situation, both pointing to the same conclusion—waiting. Waiting for what? For clearer signals of capital flows and profit-taking levels to be confirmed.

Investment Strategy Insights

Matrixport’s advice is “Cautious participation, selective opportunities.” Specifically:

• Stay engaged but maintain discipline—avoid chasing highs and blindly adding to positions
• Wait for clearer confirmation from capital flow and on-chain profit level indicators
• Once these indicators signal, consider substantially increasing risk exposure
• Do not expect rapid breakthroughs in the short term; even if breakthroughs occur, sustained trends will be harder to form

Summary

The improvement in Bitcoin’s on-chain structure is a tangible positive signal, indicating that the market has indeed moved out of its most fragile phase. However, improvement does not equal a reversal; capital inflows are the decisive factor. Currently, the market is characterized by “a bottom but lacking strength”—the bottom is being consolidated, but upward momentum remains limited. This stage tests patience more than aggression. Investors need to wait for dual confirmation from capital flows and on-chain indicators before engaging more actively, making such opportunities more worthwhile.