#数字资产市场动态 Technical Analysis of ETH: The Logic Behind This Market Movement

After reaching the recent high around 3403, the complete distribution phase has concluded, and we are now entering a retracement stage. Multiple failed attempts at rebound indicate that the overall trend is still oscillating downward. This is not just a simple correction but a weak market dominated by bears.

Currently, the price is around 3281, having broken through the previous consolidation mid-range. Look above at the dense long upper shadows near 3400—repeated attempts to push higher failed, which is a typical sign of distribution. The downward slope of the decline is quite stable, and the rebounds are getting smaller—dropping from 3340 to 3320, then to 3305, with each high being lower than the previous one. This is a classic weak rebound signal. The bears are still in control, and weak rebounds are the norm.

Key support levels to watch:

In the short term, 3270–3255 is a defensive line. These are the recent low points during the last two dips. Holding this zone allows for continued oscillation; breaking below would open up further downside space. Below that, 3220–3200 is the previous breakout platform and a mid-term key level separating bulls and bears. If this level is broken, the short-term bearish trend will accelerate.

Rebound resistance levels:

The first resistance is around 3310–3330, where multiple failed rebounds occurred and trading volume is dense. Only if the price stabilizes above this zone can a meaningful rebound be considered; otherwise, it’s just a correction. The real structural resistance lies at 3360–3385, along the upper boundary of the downtrend channel and the most concentrated distribution area. Only by holding above this level can the short-term trend potentially turn stronger again.

Points to note:

If the price falls below 3250 and cannot recover, the structure will fully shift to a bearish continuation, with support levels at 3220, 3200, and in the worst case, 3150. Conversely, if a volume breakout occurs and the price stabilizes above 3360, the bearish structure will be broken, increasing the likelihood of retesting above 3400.

Currently, the market is in a consolidation phase after a sharp rise and subsequent pullback. Avoid chasing the highs; if trading contracts, control your position size carefully. Prioritize shorting on rebounds over longing. It’s more reliable to wait for the structure to develop rather than guessing the direction blindly.