This power struggle in Washington can be called a rollercoaster. Trump initially aimed to pressure for rate cuts, but unexpectedly strengthened Powell's political position. After the investigation controversy emerged, the probability of Powell stepping down in May plummeted to a low point, while expectations of him remaining until 2028 increased. The most ironic part is that the dovish Haskett, whom Trump strongly supported, was essentially sidelined, replaced by hawkish Waller—this political maneuver can be described as a complete failure.

Market reactions were quite straightforward. Following the surge in discussions about the Fed's independence, the US dollar index fell sharply, while gold rebounded, with a large influx of funds rushing into defensive assets. Powell's late-night statement video went viral, with lawmakers from both parties criticizing political interference, and three former Fed chairs jointly expressed support. This series of actions clearly indicates that the market has re-priced its expectations of the Fed's independence.

Here's a detail worth noting: to demonstrate neutrality, Powell might actually adopt a more cautious or even hawkish policy stance. The pace of rate cuts has returned to a "data-dependent" mode, so don't expect policy easing in the short term. It is recommended to focus on safe-haven asset allocation, sector rotation in defensive sectors, and short-term bond opportunities. This grand drama ultimately confirms an enduring logic: the independence of the central bank is the most reliable ballast for the market.