#DeFi协议与应用 Seeing Haseeb's 2026 forecast, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—this list looks a lot like the cyclical script of every market cycle.

BTC hitting $150,000 while market share declines—this paradox has occurred more than once in history. Remember the 2017 wave? When Bitcoin reached new highs, it was also the peak of altcoin frenzy, with coins wildly cutting into each other's gains. Market capacity was expanding, but influence was dispersing—this is not a bad thing, just a sign of maturity.

What impressed me most was the judgment on Perp DEXs. Three platforms capturing 90% of the market share, with the remaining 10% of projects being crushed—this is nothing but the fate of every DeFi track. Thinking back to the chaos of DEXs back then, Uniswap ultimately emerged victorious, while many "innovative" projects became footnotes in history. The current Perp market is heading toward the same crossroads.

The point about the equity investment share surpassing 20% is particularly worth pondering. In 2019, we were still discussing the ideal of fully on-chain DeFi finance, and now we’re returning to the old equity logic—what does this mean? It indicates that project teams are beginning to realize that pure tokenomics has hit a ceiling. Reality is always much rougher than ideals.

The 60% growth expectation for stablecoins and the loosening of USDT’s dominance—I'm quite cautious about this. History shows us that although the stablecoin sector appears fiercely competitive, in reality, all are repeating the path USDT has already taken. New entrants are either suppressed by regulation or relegated to niche tools. Changes will come, but not so quickly.

As for the prediction that 90% of the market will be "zombie products," I agree. Every cycle, this track sees a frenzy of new projects, and then 90% die off. It was like that in 2021, and it’s still like that in 2024. History repeats itself—hot money flows in, bubbles burst, survivors reign supreme.