ETH: Market Analysis

After forming a temporary top around 3403, the price experienced a complete surge to the high, followed by distribution. Currently, as the trend begins to decline, the rebound has failed, and the price is oscillating downward.
The current price is around 3281, having broken below the previous consolidation midline. The oscillation is biased bearish with a downward shift in the center of gravity, indicating a short-term weak correction dominated by a bearish structure rather than a simple retracement.
Top Structure: Multiple failed attempts to break above 3400, with dense long upper shadows, clearly showing a distribution pattern.
Downtrend Phase: The decline slope remains stable, rebound amplitude is limited, and bears continue to dominate.
Current Stage: Each rebound high point is gradually decreasing (3340 - 3320 - 3305), a typical weak rebound structure.
Market Features: Weak rebound with decreasing highs, bears still controlling the rhythm.

Key Support Levels:
3260–3255 (Short-term core support)
The recent two low points suggest that the short-term defense line of the current structure is holding, but if broken, it could lead to low-range oscillation and further decline.
3220–3200 (Structural support level)
The previous breakout platform's mid-term bull-bear dividing line was broken, and breaking this zone signals the short-term bullish trend entering an acceleration phase.
Key Resistance Levels:
3310–3330 (First rebound resistance)
The area with dense trading volume above the current price has multiple failed rebound attempts, indicating inability to stabilize, and the rebound remains a correction.
3360–3385 (Structural resistance)
Only if the price stabilizes above the upper boundary of the previous dense distribution zone of the downtrend channel can the short-term structure potentially regain strength.

Risk Points:
Breaking below 3250 and closing without returning above could turn the structure bearish, opening space below: 3220–3200–3150.
A volume breakout and stabilization above 3360 could damage the bearish structure, with a probability of retesting above 3400.
Currently, the market is in a consolidation phase after a surge and pullback, not suitable for chasing longs. Contract positions should be controlled, and the priority should be on shorting during rebounds. Structural analysis is more important than guessing the direction!!
@Everyone