#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 【Ethereum Technical Analysis: Shrinking Volume Dilemma Under Bollinger Middle Band Pressure】

Recently, I've been watching ETH's movement and want to share some observations.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has been hovering below the Bollinger middle band at 3321 — shrinking volume with a bearish decline, and the rebound strength is quite weak. Yesterday’s rebound even failed to hold above 3305, and this kind of oscillation can easily trigger false signals. The MACD has been in a dead cross below the zero line for some time, which is not very optimistic.

From on-chain data, large transfer addresses have been net outflows increasing over the past 6 hours. Although exchange inflows are not large, they are also rising, indicating selling pressure still exists. The news sentiment remains calm, with no new ETF actions and no obvious highlights in the ecosystem, so the market is still looking for the next strong catalyst.

**Key Level Analysis:**
The middle band at 3321 is a recent short-term resistance. Whether it can hold here is crucial — only if it stabilizes can a rebound be possible; otherwise, caution is advised to avoid false signals.
The key support below is at 3265 (Bollinger lower band). If volume increases and it breaks down, it’s likely to test the 3220-3250 range.
Even if a rebound occurs, the price zone of 3350-3380 is filled with previously trapped positions. Without significant volume, a breakout is unlikely.

**Trading Strategy:**
For spot trading, it’s recommended not to rush into bottom-fishing. Wait until MACD turns positive and the price stabilizes above the middle band before considering entry for more safety.
If you are trading futures, focus on short positions, trying small shorts in the 3290-3310 range, with a stop-loss at 3335 and a target of 3260.

The market itself is not wrong, but my trading system currently does not show bottom signals. At such times, it’s better to miss a wave than to make a wrong trade. The "oscillating downward" forecast I mentioned a few days ago is still valid. Those following my rhythm should have successfully avoided chasing the top.

Be patient and wait; good opportunities are created by waiting. $ETH