Recently, I've been pondering an interesting phenomenon—this year, Bitcoin's performance relative to gold and the Nasdaq has indeed been quite underwhelming. The underlying logic behind this is actually quite clear.

First is the issue of US dollar liquidity. Bitcoin's price movement is highly correlated with US dollar liquidity. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin naturally comes under pressure. This is nothing new; historical data has long proven this point.

Why did gold instead rise? Essentially, it's due to risk aversion sentiment. Sovereign nations are stockpiling gold, driven by very practical considerations—preventing the risk of US debt being frozen. These geopolitical concerns have boosted gold demand, creating sustained buying power.

The Nasdaq is easier to understand. The AI industry has received strong government support, which is a tangible policy dividend. Technology stocks themselves have high growth potential, and the combination of these factors naturally pushed the Nasdaq to new highs. In contrast, Bitcoin lacks this kind of direct policy support.

From an asset allocation perspective, such divergence in 2025 is quite normal. The driving logic of different assets is changing. Bitcoin needs to wait for an improved liquidity environment or for new growth narratives to emerge. Some institutional investors are temporarily shifting to gold and tech stocks to hedge risks, which also explains why Bitcoin's relative performance is lagging.

The key going forward still depends on the direction of US dollar policy and the sustainability of AI development. These two factors will determine the rhythm of the entire market.