The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is about to begin, and the Bitcoin opportunities in the first half of 2026 are worth paying attention to.

The current macro environment is undergoing subtle changes. Core CPI has already fallen to 2.6%, and the inflation pressure faced by the Federal Reserve has significantly eased. According to historical patterns, Q1 is likely to see a combination of rate cuts and quantitative easing—once liquidity is reintroduced, funds will naturally flow into alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Interestingly, the short-term market seems somewhat subdued. By the end of 2025, Bitcoin ETF funds are experiencing net outflows, and many retail investors are panic selling. However, the performance of institutional giants is quite different—players like MicroStrategy have been continuously increasing their holdings since the beginning of the year, adding 11,000 Bitcoins in this round alone, worth about $1.1 billion. This kind of "reverse divergence" usually indicates that the market is approaching a bottom, and long-term capital is quietly positioning itself.

On-chain data shows that although some indicators are still adjusting, key valuation models indicate that Bitcoin has entered a historically undervalued level, similar to the accumulation phases before past bull-bear transitions. Many short-term holders are "cutting losses," which actually creates an excellent entry window for institutions.

Looking at historical performance, Bitcoin's average return in the first quarter exceeds 50%, often accompanied by a corrective rebound. If this is combined with the Fed's policy shift and continued institutional accumulation, there is indeed room for a new rally.

Overall, macro shifts, institutional buildup, and on-chain value signals all point in the same direction—Bitcoin in 2026 may be at the start of a new cycle. Staying attentive and prepared before the storm is still very meaningful.