Interesting viewpoints are coming. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently published an analysis that, although Bitcoin briefly surged to a historical high of 12.6 million in 2025, its overall performance still falls a bit short—compared to the gains in gold and the Nasdaq, it's lacking. The reason? Global dollar credit tightening, which is the main culprit.

You see, currently, geopolitical risks are high, and central banks around the world are hoarding gold, treating it as a reserve alternative to US dollar bonds, so gold prices are soaring; corporate earnings are also good, and the US stock market naturally follows suit. But Bitcoin has been unlucky—it is too sensitive to US dollar liquidity, essentially a "marginal asset," and when fiat credit tightens, it immediately faces pressure.

However, Hayes believes the situation will reverse in 2026. He expects the Federal Reserve to continue monetary expansion through the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program to expand its balance sheet, injecting about $40 billion of new liquidity into the market each month. At the same time, bank lending will increase, and mortgage rates will decline. When these two forces combine, dollar credit will expand again.

Based on this judgment, Hayes is optimistic about risk assets in 2026. His company has already built leveraged exposure by holding certain Bitcoin-related stocks, betting that these stocks can outperform Bitcoin itself in a bull market.

Overall, although Bitcoin may be quiet in 2025, as long as the high-probability event of dollar credit expansion in 2026 materializes, along with the Fed's balance sheet expansion, bank lending, and falling interest rates, Bitcoin and other risk assets could enter a whole new upward cycle.