2026-01-16 04:26:33

BTC's current bullish pattern has been completely broken. From the candlestick chart, the trap structure is very clear, and the entire process has basically played out, with no signs of trend reversal upward. One effective decline confirmation has been completed, and this is no longer just a correction but a clear sign of weakening.

The next trading logic is: as long as the price shows a rebound on the 1-hour chart, it is an opportunity to follow the trend and short. This wave of decline is likely to be divided into two stages—first, a dip to around 94,500, followed by a rebound to lure longs; after the second rebound ends, the market will truly enter a downtrend, with the low point likely breaking below 93,000. The specific precise levels need to be confirmed by market movements.

How to judge the bottom? No need to guess. Just look for three features: no further decline, long periods of sideways movement, and the timing usually around the weekend (especially Sunday).

From the current stage, the risk-reward ratio of the bulls is already very low. The bears are the more trend-following choice. There are indeed many ways for the decline to unfold, but the core conclusion is certain: at this stage, shorting has a higher win rate.

BTC-0,47%

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BearMarketMonk

· 01-19 03:59

It's both manipulative and destructive again, and it's giving me a headache. However, your double-stage decline logic from 94500 to 93000 is quite interesting. Shorts are definitely satisfying, but brother, with such precise level predictions... I think I'll stick to following the market sentiment. The Sunday bottom theory does have some reference value. Can this wave really break through 93000?

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PessimisticLayer

· 01-18 17:40

The trap is coming again. Haven't I seen this routine many times before? It's going to hit 93,000 again... It's the standard two-phase decline theory; the market is indeed very weak. The bulls really have no way out now, and the bears have a high probability this time. Wait for the rebound to go short again; this logic makes sense. I bet five dollars that 93,000 can be broken.

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SatoshiChallenger

· 01-16 04:52

It's the same old trick of baiting with false signals, 94500, 93000, sounding as precise as fortune-telling... Data shows that the success rate of this kind of "accurate prediction" is actually less than 30%, but someone always gets caught up in it. Ironically, the guys who were so confident in the short-sell last time have already liquidated their positions.

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LadderToolGuy

· 01-16 04:33

I've seen many cases of false breakout, whether the 93,000 level can be broken depends on the subsequent trading volume. This wave is indeed a bit risky; if it rebounds and then drops, following the rhythm is the safest. It's Sunday again, hitting the bottom—this pattern is quite accurate, but I'm just worried there might be some surprises at the end. Are the bears now offering such high value? Then just wait for a rebound opportunity, mechanically following the trend is all there is to it. If 94,500 can't be broken, I will doubt this analysis; we need to see the actual trend before making any conclusions.

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PerennialLeek

· 01-16 04:33

Bull trap again and again, I just want to ask, can the 93,000 really break this time?

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SchrodingerProfit

· 01-16 04:27

Inducing more and more, tired of this routine. Rebound then smash, bottom out on Sunday, simple and straightforward. Talking about precise levels again, what to do if the market suddenly changes face. This wave of bears really has no suspense, just listen to the win rate. 94500, 93000... Anyway, just fall, let the market speak for the details. The bulls really have no chance, I believe in this.

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