I recently came across an interesting perspective—the chief strategist of a major U.S. bank made a bold prediction during the earnings call: if stablecoin issuers are allowed to pay interest, they could potentially siphon off up to $6 trillion in deposits from the banking system. It sounds exaggerated at first glance, but upon closer reflection, it’s worth considering.

The key lies in the operational logic. These interest-bearing stablecoins are more akin to money market funds—the funds are primarily held in cash, central bank reserves, or short-term government bonds, rather than being lent out by banks. In other words, users can earn interest simply by holding their money there, making it more attractive than traditional bank accounts. This is what worries bank executives the most.

Once a large amount of deposits shifts into the stablecoin ecosystem, a chain reaction occurs—the amount of funds available for bank lending shrinks, and the bank’s credit supply capacity is weakened. Who is most affected? Small and medium-sized enterprises. These businesses, which mainly rely on bank loans rather than capital market financing, will face more difficulty in obtaining loans and higher interest rates, driving up overall financing costs.

This actually reflects a deep-seated anxiety in traditional finance about crypto innovation—stablecoins are gradually eroding the traditional functions of banks, from storing value to providing yields, step by step replacing them. Of course, whether this prediction will come true depends on regulatory attitudes and market acceptance. But from a technological feasibility standpoint, this threat is not unfounded.